Sat, Feb 28, 2015·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Buffalo Sabres 3, Florida Panthers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 97% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 26 | 04 | 14 | 314 |
| FLA | 010 | 319 | 218 | 547 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:57BUFCody HodgsonAssists: Zach Bogosian, Nicolas Deslauriers · Slap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 7:18BUFAndrej MeszarosAssists: Johan Larsson, Cody Hodgson · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–0
- P2 12:01FLABrandon PirriPPAssists: Brian Campbell, Jussi Jokinen · Slap, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 13:24FLABrandon PirriPPAssists: Brian Campbell, Brad Boyes · Slap, 0.05 xG2–2
- P2 18:31FLANick BjugstadAssists: Jussi Jokinen, Brad Boyes · Slap, 0.15 xG2–3
- P3 12:54BUFTorrey MitchellAssists: Matt Moulson, Nikita Zadorov · Slap, 0.13 xG3–3
- P3 14:02FLAScottie UpshallGWGAssists: Derek MacKenzie, Shawn Thornton · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–4
- P3 19:43FLADerek MacKenzieENAssists: Brad Boyes, Jussi Jokinen · Wrist, 0.61 xG3–5
Penalties (11)
- P1 3:49BUFZac Dalpe: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:35BUFChris Stewart: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 12:39FLANick Bjugstad: Cross checking2 min
- P1 12:39FLANick Bjugstad: Roughing2 min
- P1 12:39BUFRasmus Ristolainen: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:56BUFAndrej Meszaros: Holding2 min
- P1 18:29FLAAaron Ekblad: Holding2 min
- P2 0:59FLASteven Kampfer: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:20BUFMike Weber: Interference2 min
- P2 10:03BUFJohan Larsson: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 11:57BUFZach Bogosian: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Mitchell
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- Ellis – Hodgson – Deslauriers3:43
xG 0.07–0.10 (42%)attempts 3–4goals 1–1
- Dalpe – Varone – Larsson4:57
xG 0.07–0.21 (25%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Gionta – Moulson – Mitchell6:53
xG 0.15–0.46 (24%)attempts 2–9goals 1–1
- Stewart – Foligno – Flynn10:25
xG 0.08–0.64 (12%)attempts 3–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Meszaros – Zadorov10:42
xG 0.28–0.69 (29%)attempts 5–14goals 2–0
- Benoit – Bogosian13:18
xG 0.09–0.72 (11%)attempts 6–12goals 1–1
- Weber – Ristolainen12:04
xG 0.14–0.87 (14%)attempts 5–15goals 0–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestHayes – Pirri – Trocheck10:16
xG 1.00–0.15 (87%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Boyes – Jokinen – Bjugstad6:11
xG 0.53–0.07 (88%)attempts 11–2goals 1–0
- Thornton – MacKenzie – Upshall6:59
xG 0.12–0.02 (84%)attempts 7–1goals 1–1
- Jagr – Huberdeau – Barkov10:35
xG 0.35–0.26 (57%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKulikov – Gudbranson11:00
xG 0.87–0.21 (81%)attempts 13–4goals 1–2
- Campbell – Ekblad14:29
xG 0.71–0.05 (93%)attempts 19–2goals 1–0
- Kampfer – Petrovic13:43
xG 0.81–0.28 (74%)attempts 14–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 97% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).