Sat, Feb 28, 2015·TD Garden, Boston
Arizona Coyotes 1, Boston Bruins 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 09 | 013 | 110 | 132 |
| BOS | 213 | 211 | 010 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:40BOSMilan LucicAssists: David Pastrnak, Ryan Spooner · Backhand, 0.02 xG0–1
- P1 14:13BOSBrad MarchandGWGAssists: Reilly Smith, Patrice Bergeron · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–2
- P2 3:02BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: Brad Marchand, Zdeno Chara · Backhand, 0.04 xG0–3
- P2 11:50BOSZdeno CharaPPAssists: Reilly Smith, Milan Lucic · Slap, 0.04 xG0–4
- P3 10:21ARIMartin EratAssists: Shane Doan, Keith Yandle · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 9:46ARIKyle Chipchura: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 17:57ARIShane Doan: Interference2 min
- P2 11:00ARILauri Korpikoski: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 19:23BOSChris Kelly: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:50ARIHenrik Samuelsson: Holding2 min
- P3 16:46ARIKyle Chipchura: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Vermette
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestDoan – Vermette – Korpikoski3:44
xG 0.39–0.15 (73%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Vitale – Lessio – Samuelsson7:02
xG 0.32–0.23 (58%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Erat – Moss – Arcobello7:48
xG 0.11–0.05 (69%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Korpikoski – Vitale – Samuelsson2:40
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Stone – Ekman-Larsson14:48
xG 0.36–0.31 (54%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Yandle – Campbell13:25
xG 0.48–0.43 (52%)attempts 14–12goals 1–1
- Gormley – Murphy10:35
xG 0.20–0.21 (50%)attempts 11–8goals 0–2
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Smith9:11
xG 0.42–0.31 (57%)attempts 10–6goals 2–0
- Kelly – Caron – Ferlin9:14
xG 0.16–0.11 (58%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Lucic – Spooner – Pastrnak10:06
xG 0.30–0.49 (37%)attempts 7–16goals 1–1
- Paille – Eriksson – Soderberg12:33
xG 0.14–0.38 (26%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcQuaid – Krug12:39
xG 0.58–0.14 (80%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Chara – McQuaid3:27
xG 0.12–0.28 (30%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Chara – Hamilton11:19
xG 0.23–0.50 (31%)attempts 7–10goals 3–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).