Sat, Feb 28, 2015·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Ottawa Senators 4, San Jose Sharks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 010 | 112 | 39 | 431 |
| SJS | 112 | 111 | 07 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:27SJSTommy WingelsAssists: Matt Irwin, Matt Nieto · Wrist, 0.35 xG0–1
- P2 7:29OTTErik KarlssonPPAssists: Kyle Turris, Mike Hoffman · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 13:19SJSPatrick MarleauPPAssists: Joe Pavelski, Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.38 xG1–2
- P3 3:52OTTMark StoneAssists: Kyle Turris · Wrist, 0.31 xG2–2
- P3 7:59OTTMike HoffmanPPGWGAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Erik Karlsson · Snap, 0.24 xG3–2
- P3 18:50OTTMike HoffmanENAssists: Mark Stone · Snap, 0.56 xG4–2
Penalties (7)
- P2 2:24SJSTommy Wingels: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:05SJSBrent Burns: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 9:10SJSLogan Couture: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:10OTTMark Stone: Cross checking2 min
- P2 12:57OTTColin Greening: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 14:18OTTKyle Turris: Holding2 min
- P3 7:17SJSBrenden Dillon: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couture won the faceoff against Turris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestCondra – Pageau – Puempel9:16
xG 0.45–0.29 (61%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Michalek – Turris – Stone13:27
xG 0.65–0.80 (45%)attempts 14–14goals 1–0
- Legwand – Greening – Chiasson6:33
xG 0.36–0.56 (39%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
- Ryan – Hoffman – Zibanejad10:51
xG 0.05–0.35 (12%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Methot – Karlsson19:29
xG 0.49–0.54 (47%)attempts 18–19goals 0–0
- Gryba – Borowiecki14:24
xG 0.29–0.34 (46%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Wiercioch – Ceci11:58
xG 0.71–1.21 (37%)attempts 12–15goals 1–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestSheppard – Wingels – Nieto9:28
xG 0.96–0.35 (73%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Thornton – Pavelski – Hertl13:14
xG 0.64–0.23 (74%)attempts 19–13goals 0–0
- Marleau – Couture – Karlsson11:28
xG 0.64–0.53 (55%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
- Desjardins – McGinn – Goodrow7:01
xG 0.02–0.17 (11%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHannan – Irwin12:34
xG 0.90–0.17 (84%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Burns – Vlasic17:54
xG 0.95–0.55 (63%)attempts 22–19goals 0–0
- Braun – Dillon15:28
xG 0.39–0.40 (50%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).