Sun, Mar 1, 2015·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Florida Panthers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 17 | 05 | 211 | 323 |
| FLA | 17 | 214 | 15 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:24FLAJaromir JagrAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Brian Campbell · Snap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 12:08TBLAnton StralmanAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Brian Boyle · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 5:31FLAAleksander BarkovAssists: Jaromir Jagr, Jonathan Huberdeau · Tip-in, 0.32 xG1–2
- P2 17:00FLABrad BoyesUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–3
- P3 4:18FLAAaron EkbladPPGWGAssists: Nick Bjugstad, Jonathan Huberdeau · Slap, 0.05 xG1–4
- P3 8:31TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Alex Killorn, Jason Garrison · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–4
- P3 17:16TBLTyler JohnsonAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Anton Stralman · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–4
Penalties (13)
- P1 15:37TBLVictor Hedman: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:49FLABrad Boyes: Holding2 min
- P2 3:07TBLAnton Stralman: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:09FLADerek MacKenzie: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P2 8:20FLAAleksander Barkov: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P2 14:31FLASteven Kampfer: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:31TBLBrenden Morrow: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:31TBLAndrej Sustr: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:31TBLBrian Boyle: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:31FLADerek MacKenzie: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:42TBLValtteri Filppula: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:30TBLJonathan Drouin: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 0:00FLAErik Gudbranson: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johnson won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestJohnson – Palat – Kucherov10:58
xG 0.91–0.30 (75%)attempts 13–8goals 1–1
- Filppula – Connolly – Drouin2:03
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Filppula – Connolly – Paquette5:35
xG 0.21–0.20 (51%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Filppula – Paquette – Drouin3:28
xG 0.02–0.04 (37%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Barberio12:08
xG 0.89–0.46 (66%)attempts 14–10goals 2–1
- Hedman – Sustr15:40
xG 0.45–0.26 (64%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Garrison – Nesterov12:49
xG 0.25–0.36 (41%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Huberdeau – Barkov12:01
xG 0.67–0.37 (64%)attempts 13–9goals 2–0
- Hayes – Pirri – Trocheck10:29
xG 0.44–0.38 (54%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Boyes – Jokinen – Bjugstad10:47
xG 0.15–0.24 (38%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Kopecky – Upshall8:45
xG 0.24–0.57 (30%)attempts 3–12goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestKulikov – Gudbranson13:54
xG 0.66–0.24 (73%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Campbell – Ekblad16:40
xG 0.49–0.52 (49%)attempts 13–16goals 2–2
- Kampfer – Petrovic14:19
xG 0.37–0.68 (35%)attempts 17–17goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).