Sun, Mar 1, 2015·Verizon Center, Washington
Toronto Maple Leafs 0, Washington Capitals 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 84% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 013 | 08 | 011 | 032 |
| WSH | 19 | 111 | 212 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:33WSHAlex OvechkinGWGAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, Karl Alzner · Snap, 0.15 xG0–1
- P2 5:30WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Brooks Orpik, John Carlson · Backhand, 0.13 xG0–2
- P3 9:14WSHMarcus JohanssonPPAssists: Troy Brouwer, Alex Ovechkin · Wrist, 0.36 xG0–3
- P3 15:07WSHJoel WardENAssists: Eric Fehr · Wrist, 0.54 xG0–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 19:27TORRoman Polak: Boarding2 min
- P1 19:27WSHTroy Brouwer: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:14WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:37TORRoman Polak: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:11TORTyler Bozak: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:11WSHTom Wilson: Embellishment2 min
- P2 10:57WSHMike Green: Holding2 min
- P3 0:22WSHMatt Niskanen: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 5:03WSHMike Green: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:32TORDavid Booth: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestKessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak10:50
xG 0.64–0.25 (72%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Sill – Holland – Kozun4:27
xG 0.06–0.04 (62%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Booth – Komarov – Holland2:32
xG 0.00–0.38 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–1
- Lupul – Kadri – Panik8:17
xG 0.38–0.77 (33%)attempts 11–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRobidas – Phaneuf5:10
xG 0.34–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Polak – Gardiner7:15
xG 0.24–0.06 (81%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Robidas – Gardiner4:05
xG 0.09–0.09 (49%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestBrouwer – Beagle – Johansson11:38
xG 1.02–0.29 (78%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Burakovsky9:27
xG 0.75–0.38 (67%)attempts 16–10goals 2–0
- Laich – Kuznetsov – Wilson6:25
xG 0.13–0.05 (72%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Chimera – Ward – Fehr7:39
xG 0.19–0.30 (38%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGleason – Green14:47
xG 0.87–0.32 (73%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Orpik – Carlson9:46
xG 0.60–0.31 (66%)attempts 14–9goals 1–0
- Niskanen – Alzner13:12
xG 0.51–0.67 (43%)attempts 9–15goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 84% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).