Tue, Mar 3, 2015·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Calgary Flames 3, Philadelphia Flyers 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 112 | 15 | 07 | 12 | 326 |
| PHI | 010 | 012 | 215 | 00 | 237 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:30CGYSean MonahanAssists: Mason Raymond, Jiri Hudler · Snap, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 4:58CGYMikael BacklundAssists: Lance Bouma, Emile Poirier · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–0
- P3 0:53PHISean CouturierAssists: Ryan White · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–1
- P3 8:15PHIMark StreitAssists: Michael Raffl, Claude Giroux · Deflected, 0.06 xG2–2
- OT 1:23CGYJiri HudlerGWGAssists: TJ Brodie, Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–2
Penalties (4)
- P2 7:43PHIMichael Raffl: Interference2 min
- P2 13:24CGYJoe Colborne: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 18:27CGYMason Raymond: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P3 1:10PHIMichael Del Zotto: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Bellemare
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- Jones – Backlund – Bouma14:59
xG 0.75–0.75 (50%)attempts 20–25goals 0–0
- Colborne – Gaudreau – Jooris6:13
xG 0.03–0.10 (23%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Shore – Ferland – Poirier4:55
xG 0.03–0.15 (15%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Shore – Gaudreau – Poirier2:43
xG 0.02–0.21 (7%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Potter – Diaz5:29
xG 0.20–0.22 (47%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Engelland – Brodie20:28
xG 0.40–0.71 (36%)attempts 15–25goals 1–1
- Wideman – Russell22:10
xG 1.15–1.56 (43%)attempts 21–37goals 1–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestUmberger – White – Schenn8:36
xG 0.61–0.17 (78%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Giroux – Simmonds – Raffl13:47
xG 0.74–0.44 (62%)attempts 27–8goals 0–1
- Voracek – Read – Couturier12:00
xG 0.48–0.34 (59%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Lecavalier – VandeVelde – Bellemare4:53
xG 0.03–0.44 (7%)attempts 3–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Del Zotto6:05
xG 0.58–0.03 (95%)attempts 12–3goals 1–0
- Colaiacovo – Schenn3:40
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
- Colaiacovo – MacDonald10:38
xG 0.61–0.44 (58%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).