Tue, Mar 3, 2015·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Buffalo Sabres 0, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 010 | 04 | 014 | 028 |
| TBL | 112 | 217 | 06 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:37TBLSteven StamkosGWGAssists: Alex Killorn, Andrej Sustr · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 2:48TBLRyan CallahanPPAssists: Tyler Johnson, Valtteri Filppula · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–2
- P2 4:24TBLVictor HedmanPPAssists: Anton Stralman, Ondrej Palat · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–3
Penalties (6)
- P2 1:19BUFRasmus Ristolainen: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 2:27BUFAndrej Meszaros: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 15:03TBLBraydon Coburn: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:03BUFMarcus Foligno: Fighting5 min
- P3 7:08TBLBrenden Morrow: High sticking2 min
- P3 19:28TBLBraydon Coburn: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johnson won the faceoff against Varone
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestHodgson – Deslauriers – Schaller9:54
xG 0.23–0.16 (60%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Gionta – Foligno – Larsson12:50
xG 0.28–0.29 (49%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
- Moulson – Ennis – Varone15:58
xG 0.60–0.72 (45%)attempts 13–20goals 0–0
- Ellis – Dalpe – D'Amigo8:33
xG 0.13–0.28 (32%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMeszaros – Zadorov13:01
xG 0.40–0.29 (58%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
- Weber – Ristolainen16:22
xG 0.54–0.60 (47%)attempts 11–19goals 0–0
- Benoit – Bogosian17:58
xG 0.19–0.44 (30%)attempts 12–15goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestCallahan – Killorn – Stamkos14:55
xG 0.55–0.32 (63%)attempts 19–12goals 1–0
- Johnson – Palat – Kucherov12:01
xG 0.57–0.41 (58%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Filppula – Paquette – Drouin11:15
xG 0.25–0.25 (50%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Morrow – Boyle – Brown9:08
xG 0.06–0.08 (45%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Hedman14:37
xG 0.77–0.34 (69%)attempts 21–11goals 0–0
- Barberio – Sustr15:11
xG 0.36–0.32 (53%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Hedman – Sustr2:31
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).