Tue, Mar 3, 2015·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Florida Panthers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 016 | 18 | 210 | 334 |
| FLA | 111 | 114 | 017 | 242 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:42FLABrandon PirriAssists: Jimmy Hayes, Vincent Trocheck · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 4:40TORTyler BozakPPAssists: Dion Phaneuf, Phil Kessel · Tip-in, 0.36 xG1–1
- P2 13:12FLAAaron EkbladPPAssists: Jimmy Hayes, Jonathan Huberdeau · Slap, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 0:22TORNazem KadriAssists: Jake Gardiner, Richard Panik · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–2
- P3 5:28TORPeter HollandGWGAssists: David Booth · Backhand, 0.17 xG3–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 2:55FLABrian Campbell: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:47FLAJimmy Hayes: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 11:21TORPhil Kessel: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 14:03TORJoffrey Lupul: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:52TORNazem Kadri: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestLindstrom – Smith – Sill5:01
xG 0.44–0.02 (95%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Lupul – Booth – Holland12:15
xG 0.91–0.52 (64%)attempts 16–9goals 1–0
- Komarov – Kadri – Panik13:10
xG 0.54–0.15 (78%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Kessel – van Riemsdyk – Bozak11:41
xG 0.01–0.40 (3%)attempts 3–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Gardiner15:22
xG 1.07–0.41 (72%)attempts 20–12goals 1–0
- Gardiner – Rielly2:05
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Robidas – Erixon11:00
xG 0.23–0.50 (32%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestMacKenzie – Kopecky – Upshall6:08
xG 0.39–0.25 (61%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Jagr – Huberdeau – Barkov13:07
xG 0.75–0.70 (51%)attempts 14–14goals 0–1
- Hayes – Pirri – Trocheck11:28
xG 0.20–0.18 (53%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Boyes – Jokinen – Bjugstad10:51
xG 0.23–0.63 (27%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKulikov – Gudbranson18:41
xG 0.79–0.57 (58%)attempts 21–11goals 1–0
- Campbell – Ekblad18:08
xG 0.52–0.65 (44%)attempts 12–19goals 0–1
- Kampfer – Petrovic10:52
xG 0.14–0.86 (14%)attempts 7–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).