Tue, Mar 3, 2015·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Anaheim Ducks 4, Arizona Coyotes 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 114 | 111 | 210 | 435 |
| ARI | 011 | 111 | 08 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:34ANARyan KeslerSHAssists: Jakob Silfverberg · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 5:56ANAAndrew CoglianoGWGAssists: Simon Despres, Nate Thompson · Slap, 0.02 xG2–0
- P2 9:30ARITobias RiederAssists: Sam Gagner, Mark Arcobello · Backhand, 0.04 xG2–1
- P3 7:21ANAJakob SilfverbergAssists: Tomas Fleischmann, Cam Fowler · Wrist, 0.34 xG3–1
- P3 17:26ANAAndrew CoglianoENAssists: Jakob Silfverberg, Francois Beauchemin · Wrist, 0.66 xG4–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 13:10ANANate Thompson: Cross checking2 min
- P2 15:26ARIShane Doan: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:26ANARyan Getzlaf: Fighting5 min
- P2 17:44ARIConnor Murphy: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:44ANACorey Perry: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:25ANACorey Perry: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Chipchura won the faceoff against Getzlaf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestFleischmann – Kesler – Silfverberg11:59
xG 0.87–0.24 (78%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Thompson – Cogliano – Maroon8:45
xG 0.51–0.12 (80%)attempts 11–7goals 1–1
- Etem – Rakell – Sekac13:05
xG 0.62–0.36 (63%)attempts 19–6goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Palmieri12:34
xG 0.48–0.35 (57%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDespres – Fowler16:07
xG 0.99–0.46 (68%)attempts 14–15goals 2–1
- Stoner – Manson15:38
xG 0.45–0.15 (75%)attempts 19–9goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Lindholm17:56
xG 1.07–1.28 (46%)attempts 23–17goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestDoan – Erat – Chipchura13:14
xG 0.65–0.39 (63%)attempts 17–10goals 0–0
- Moss – Korpikoski – Cunningham11:56
xG 0.40–0.19 (67%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Crombeen – Vitale – McGinn8:18
xG 0.90–0.79 (53%)attempts 8–17goals 0–1
- Gagner – Arcobello – Rieder12:08
xG 0.25–0.73 (25%)attempts 7–19goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMoore – Murphy16:24
xG 1.05–0.75 (58%)attempts 12–23goals 0–0
- Stone – Ekman-Larsson18:13
xG 0.43–0.49 (47%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
- Campbell – Dahlbeck13:51
xG 0.27–0.96 (22%)attempts 9–17goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).