Wed, Mar 4, 2015·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
New York Rangers 1, Detroit Red Wings 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 111 | 016 | 013 | 00 | 140 |
| DET | 19 | 07 | 012 | 13 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:12DETJustin AbdelkaderAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Jonathan Ericsson · Deflected, 0.18 xG0–1
- P1 17:02NYRDan GirardiPPAssists: Rick Nash, Mats Zuccarello · Wrist, 0.30 xG1–1
- OT 1:09DETMarek ZidlickyPPGWGAssists: Pavel Datsyuk, Henrik Zetterberg · Wrist, 0.50 xG1–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 11:03DETStephen Weiss: Interference2 min
- P1 15:15DETMarek Zidlicky: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 5:57NYRKeith Yandle: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:59DETDanny DeKeyser: Holding2 min
- P3 17:56NYRDerick Brassard: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:56DETJustin Abdelkader: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:13NYRDerek Stepan: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Datsyuk won the faceoff against Brassard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestNash – Brassard – Zuccarello11:29
xG 1.60–0.41 (80%)attempts 19–6goals 0–1
- Moore – Sheppard – Fast9:37
xG 0.18–0.24 (44%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Hagelin – Hayes – Miller11:16
xG 0.62–0.70 (47%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Stepan – Kreider12:30
xG 0.31–0.52 (37%)attempts 10–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlein – Yandle10:11
xG 0.82–0.19 (81%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- Boyle – Staal11:55
xG 0.70–0.44 (61%)attempts 17–9goals 0–0
- Staal – Girardi2:18
xG 0.11–0.01 (90%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestDatsyuk – Tatar – Jurco13:23
xG 0.90–0.48 (65%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Cole – Zetterberg – Abdelkader12:48
xG 0.64–0.74 (46%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
- Weiss – Nyquist – Sheahan10:42
xG 0.30–0.86 (26%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- Miller – Andersson – Glendening7:11
xG 0.07–0.75 (9%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Quincey – DeKeyser14:10
xG 0.54–0.74 (42%)attempts 15–18goals 0–0
- Zidlicky – Smith14:10
xG 0.13–0.38 (25%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Ericsson16:31
xG 0.57–1.45 (28%)attempts 10–17goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).