Sat, Mar 7, 2015·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Dallas Stars 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 111 | 29 | 115 | 435 |
| TBL | 210 | 011 | 37 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:59TBLAnton StralmanPPAssists: Ondrej Palat · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 14:24DALTyler SeguinPPAssists: Jason Spezza, Jamie Benn · Slap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 15:52TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Ondrej Palat, Braydon Coburn · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 3:52DALTyler SeguinAssists: John Klingberg · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P2 11:03DALVernon FiddlerAssists: Alex Goligoski, Colton Sceviour · Tip-in, 0.06 xG3–2
- P3 3:40TBLAlex KillornAssists: Ryan Callahan, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–3
- P3 5:31TBLVictor HedmanAssists: Tyler Johnson, Ondrej Palat · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–4
- P3 19:36TBLBrian BoyleENGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.57 xG3–5
- P3 19:57DALVernon FiddlerPPAssists: Jordie Benn, Colton Sceviour · Backhand, 0.13 xG4–5
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:05DALShawn Horcoff: Slashing2 min
- P1 11:16DALJamie Benn: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 13:24TBLBrian Boyle: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 17:33DALJyrki Jokipakka: High sticking2 min
- P2 12:18DALJason Demers: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 18:43TBLVictor Hedman: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Eakin won the faceoff against Filppula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Benn – Seguin12:39
xG 0.32–0.26 (55%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Fiddler – Eaves – Sceviour4:44
xG 0.23–0.27 (47%)attempts 4–8goals 1–0
- Roussel – Eakin – Garbutt9:49
xG 0.26–0.31 (46%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Benn – Eakin – Seguin2:12
xG 0.04–0.16 (21%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDemers – Benn15:45
xG 0.43–0.34 (56%)attempts 15–11goals 0–1
- Goligoski – Klingberg9:51
xG 0.38–0.31 (55%)attempts 7–8goals 1–1
- Goligoski – Jokipakka3:20
xG 0.04–0.13 (23%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestCallahan – Killorn – Stamkos11:01
xG 0.50–0.26 (65%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Morrow – Boyle – Drouin9:45
xG 0.38–0.26 (60%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Johnson – Palat – Kucherov10:03
xG 0.41–0.39 (52%)attempts 10–12goals 2–2
- Filppula – Namestnikov – Paquette12:07
xG 0.23–0.22 (51%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Hedman13:53
xG 0.69–0.11 (86%)attempts 16–8goals 2–0
- Stralman – Barberio2:46
xG 0.17–0.03 (85%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Barberio – Sustr10:55
xG 0.30–0.27 (53%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).