Sat, Mar 7, 2015·Verizon Center, Washington
Buffalo Sabres 1, Washington Capitals 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 91% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 14 | 08 | 05 | 117 |
| WSH | 16 | 323 | 216 | 645 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:35BUFJohan LarssonAssists: Marcus Foligno, Zach Bogosian · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 5:15WSHCurtis GlencrossAssists: Mike Green, Jay Beagle · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 5:27WSHJay BeagleGWGAssists: Troy Brouwer, Curtis Glencross · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 9:31WSHAlex OvechkinPPAssists: John Carlson, Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–3
- P2 13:53WSHBrooks LaichAssists: Tom Wilson · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–4
- P3 3:41WSHJoel WardPPAssists: Curtis Glencross, Mike Green · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–5
- P3 17:01WSHMarcus JohanssonAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.36 xG1–6
Penalties (9)
- P1 12:47WSHJason Chimera: Interference2 min
- P2 6:40BUFZach Bogosian: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:08BUFBrian Gionta: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 19:21BUFAndre Benoit: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P3 1:19WSHJason Chimera: Fighting5 min
- P3 1:19BUFMike Weber: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P3 2:07BUFTim Schaller: Cross checking2 min
- P3 5:40WSHBrooks Laich: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:15WSHMatt Niskanen: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larsson won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- Gionta – Foligno – Larsson11:16
xG 0.35–0.36 (49%)attempts 8–13goals 1–0
- Ellis – Dalpe – D'Amigo4:29
xG 0.07–0.08 (43%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Hodgson – Deslauriers – Schaller8:45
xG 0.15–0.39 (28%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Moulson – Ennis – Varone10:40
xG 0.20–1.14 (15%)attempts 5–22goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Strachan – Meszaros3:05
xG 0.03–0.20 (13%)attempts 1–6goals 0–1
- Benoit – Bogosian15:03
xG 0.22–0.42 (34%)attempts 5–17goals 1–1
- Benoit – Strachan3:09
xG 0.00–0.21 (0%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Backstrom – Johansson13:17
xG 1.36–0.20 (87%)attempts 28–7goals 1–0
- Glencross – Brouwer – Beagle9:46
xG 1.07–0.07 (94%)attempts 18–4goals 2–0
- Chimera – Ward – Fehr10:24
xG 0.56–0.22 (72%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Laich – Kuznetsov – Wilson9:26
xG 0.42–0.22 (66%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Carlson17:41
xG 2.00–0.51 (80%)attempts 35–13goals 2–1
- Niskanen – Alzner13:40
xG 0.60–0.17 (78%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Gleason – Green13:19
xG 0.55–0.23 (71%)attempts 12–10goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 91% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).