Sat, Mar 7, 2015·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Montréal Canadiens 2, Arizona Coyotes 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 015 | 112 | 18 | 235 |
| ARI | 05 | 08 | 015 | 028 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 14:48MTLLars EllerGWGAssists: Devante Smith-Pelly · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P3 19:58MTLBrendan GallagherENAssists: Tomas Plekanec, Max Pacioretty · Wrist, 0.61 xG2–0
Penalties (5)
- P1 1:39MTLJacob de la Rose: Holding2 min
- P2 6:37MTLSergei Gonchar: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:59ARIB.J. Crombeen: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:59MTLDale Weise: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:38ARIConnor Murphy: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Plekanec won the faceoff against Chipchura
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestEller – Smith-Pelly – de la Rose9:55
xG 0.56–0.03 (94%)attempts 15–3goals 1–0
- Plekanec – Gallagher – Galchenyuk12:20
xG 0.47–0.28 (63%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Desharnais – Pacioretty – Weise13:02
xG 0.79–0.72 (52%)attempts 15–23goals 0–0
- Prust – Mitchell – Flynn6:46
xG 0.12–0.45 (21%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGonchar – Beaulieu9:18
xG 0.90–0.64 (58%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
- Gilbert – Petry17:52
xG 0.50–0.31 (62%)attempts 16–21goals 0–0
- Markov – Subban17:48
xG 0.60–0.59 (51%)attempts 22–13goals 1–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestDoan – Erat – Chipchura12:52
xG 0.75–0.46 (62%)attempts 23–11goals 0–0
- Doan – Chipchura – McGinn2:06
xG 0.03–0.01 (68%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Moss – Korpikoski – Cunningham8:57
xG 0.49–0.51 (49%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
- Crombeen – Vitale – McGinn4:11
xG 0.11–0.21 (35%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStone – Ekman-Larsson19:18
xG 0.96–0.74 (57%)attempts 23–15goals 0–0
- Campbell – Dahlbeck13:49
xG 0.44–0.25 (64%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
- Campbell – Ekman-Larsson2:15
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).