Sun, Mar 8, 2015·Prudential Center, Newark
Philadelphia Flyers 2, New Jersey Devils 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 19 | 09 | 19 | 227 |
| NJD | 16 | 29 | 26 | 521 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:49NJDAdam HenriqueAssists: Scott Gomez, Steve Bernier · Backhand, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 7:45PHIRyan WhiteAssists: Luke Schenn · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–1
- P2 3:32NJDJacob JosefsonSHAssists: Stephen Gionta, Andy Greene · Wrist, 0.41 xG1–2
- P2 18:09NJDEric GelinasPPGWGAssists: Scott Gomez, Steve Bernier · Slap, 0.10 xG1–3
- P3 5:31NJDAdam HenriqueAssists: Steve Bernier · Tip-in, 0.12 xG1–4
- P3 11:44PHIMichael RafflSHAssists: Ryan White, Steve Mason · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–4
- P3 13:31NJDStephen GiontaAssists: Patrik Elias, Andy Greene · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 5:03PHICarlo Colaiacovo: Boarding2 min
- P2 2:51NJDAdam Larsson: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:34NJDMark Fraser: Cross checking2 min
- P2 7:26NJDTravis Zajac: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:42PHIBrandon Manning: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 18:31PHIRyan White: Tripping2 min
- P3 10:55PHISean Couturier: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:42NJDMark Fraser: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:42PHIChris VandeVelde: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Elias
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestSimmonds – Read – Couturier6:37
xG 0.26–0.04 (88%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- VandeVelde – Rinaldo – Bellemare6:55
xG 0.38–0.22 (64%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Umberger – White – Raffl6:27
xG 0.19–0.15 (56%)attempts 7–4goals 1–1
- Giroux – Simmonds – Schenn5:54
xG 0.03–0.06 (36%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Manning10:46
xG 0.60–0.03 (95%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Colaiacovo – Schenn12:20
xG 0.39–0.19 (67%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Streit – Colaiacovo2:05
xG 0.03–0.02 (56%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestElias – Zubrus – Gionta10:15
xG 0.39–0.15 (73%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Cammalleri – Tootoo – Zajac11:46
xG 0.29–0.17 (63%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Gomez – Bernier – Henrique9:30
xG 0.22–0.44 (34%)attempts 4–9goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestMerrill – Severson12:30
xG 0.32–0.13 (71%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Greene – Larsson12:24
xG 0.34–0.27 (56%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
- Fraser – Gelinas8:29
xG 0.16–0.40 (29%)attempts 4–9goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).