Mon, Mar 9, 2015·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
New York Islanders 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 012 | 011 | 318 | 12 | 443 |
| TOR | 112 | 16 | 16 | 01 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:23TORDavid BoothAssists: Jake Gardiner · Backhand, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 10:27TORPeter HollandAssists: Richard Panik, James van Riemsdyk · Backhand, 0.07 xG0–2
- P3 1:32NYITyler KennedyAssists: John Tavares, Josh Bailey · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 6:06TORJames van RiemsdykUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–3
- P3 9:58NYIFrans NielsenPPAssists: Anders Lee, Josh Bailey · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–3
- P3 10:28NYICasey CizikasAssists: Travis Hamonic · Tip-in, 0.12 xG3–3
- OT 4:38NYIJohn TavaresGWGAssists: Tyler Kennedy, Travis Hamonic · Snap, 0.17 xG4–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 3:02NYIAnders Lee: Hooking2 min
- P1 3:51TORJames van Riemsdyk: Roughing2 min
- P1 9:17NYIRyan Strome: High sticking2 min
- P1 10:17NYICal Clutterbuck: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:16TORTim Erixon: Holding2 min
- P2 11:50TORPhil Kessel: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:30NYIJohn Tavares: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:05TORDion Phaneuf: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:29TORDavid Booth: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Holland
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestClutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas9:35
xG 0.74–0.11 (87%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- Kennedy – Bailey – Tavares5:35
xG 0.32–0.12 (73%)attempts 9–4goals 1–1
- Nielsen – Grabner – Kulemin3:30
xG 0.10–0.08 (56%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Kulemin – Strome3:20
xG 0.13–0.13 (49%)attempts 8–2goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBoychuk – Leddy6:27
xG 0.53–0.19 (73%)attempts 15–5goals 0–1
- Visnovsky – Boychuk2:05
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Boychuk – Hickey3:23
xG 0.04–0.04 (50%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestBooth – Komarov – Smith10:18
xG 0.35–0.20 (63%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Holland – Panik12:02
xG 0.32–0.20 (62%)attempts 10–15goals 2–0
- Lupul – Kessel – Bozak9:53
xG 0.31–0.41 (43%)attempts 7–14goals 0–1
- Lindstrom – Sill – Kozun5:03
xG 0.00–0.57 (0%)attempts 2–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBrewer – Rielly14:42
xG 0.46–0.40 (53%)attempts 10–16goals 1–0
- Phaneuf – Gardiner15:13
xG 0.77–0.86 (47%)attempts 11–24goals 2–1
- Erixon – Granberg8:01
xG 0.06–0.61 (9%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).