Tue, Mar 10, 2015·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
New York Rangers 2, New York Islanders 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 07 | 111 | 14 | 222 |
| NYI | 113 | 010 | 07 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:35NYIAnders LeeAssists: Ryan Strome, Brock Nelson · Wrap-around, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 11:35NYRKevin HayesAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Rick Nash · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–1
- P3 2:50NYRRick NashGWGAssists: Derick Brassard, Marc Staal · Slap, 0.02 xG2–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:42NYRDerek Stepan: Hooking2 min
- P1 9:35NYICasey Cizikas: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 1:49NYRKevin Hayes: High sticking2 min
- P2 3:05NYIJohn Tavares: Holding2 min
- P2 9:17NYIJosh Bailey: Interference2 min
- P3 3:17NYRDerick Brassard: Holding2 min
- P3 9:10NYIBrian Strait: High sticking2 min
- P3 10:24NYRKeith Yandle: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hayes won the faceoff against Nelson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- Hagelin – Hayes – Miller7:10
xG 0.36–0.42 (46%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1
- Moore – Glass – Fast4:11
xG 0.06–0.25 (18%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Stepan – Miller2:50
xG 0.00–0.20 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
- Nash – Brassard – Zuccarello12:05
xG 0.31–0.57 (35%)attempts 16–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Boyle – Yandle7:11
xG 0.07–0.13 (34%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Klein – Yandle4:18
xG 0.01–0.14 (9%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Girardi – McDonagh13:12
xG 0.65–0.80 (45%)attempts 18–14goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – Bailey – Tavares4:45
xG 0.53–0.14 (80%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Okposo – Kulemin7:00
xG 0.46–0.12 (79%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Lee – Nelson – Strome7:25
xG 0.44–0.25 (64%)attempts 7–13goals 1–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas7:52
xG 0.40–0.26 (60%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestVisnovsky – Hickey12:07
xG 0.88–0.25 (78%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1
- Boychuk – Hamonic2:32
xG 0.50–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Boychuk – de Haan11:15
xG 0.59–0.19 (75%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).