Tue, Mar 10, 2015·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
New Jersey Devils 2, Minnesota Wild 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 90% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 015 | 19 | 18 | 232 |
| MIN | 114 | 315 | 29 | 638 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:57MINSean BergenheimAssists: Kyle Brodziak, Erik Haula · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–1
- P2 0:13MINChris StewartAssists: Mikko Koivu, Nino Niederreiter · Backhand, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 4:23MINJared SpurgeonGWGAssists: Mikael Granlund, Chris Stewart · Slap, 0.06 xG0–3
- P2 10:03NJDDainius ZubrusAssists: Steve Bernier, Patrik Elias · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–3
- P2 13:01MINThomas VanekAssists: Charlie Coyle, Justin Fontaine · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–4
- P3 1:18MINJason PominvilleAssists: Jared Spurgeon, Zach Parise · Slap, 0.07 xG1–5
- P3 8:18MINThomas VanekPPAssists: Zach Parise, Ryan Suter · Tip-in, 0.31 xG1–6
- P3 8:40NJDScott GomezAssists: Steve Bernier, Damon Severson · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–6
Penalties (4)
- P1 2:11NJDEric Gelinas: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:13NJDMark Fraser: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:59NJDMark Fraser: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 10:06NJDStephen Gionta: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestElias – Zubrus – Gionta11:09
xG 0.32–0.26 (55%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Cammalleri – Tootoo – Zajac14:37
xG 0.41–0.62 (40%)attempts 15–16goals 0–1
- Gomez – Bernier – Henrique11:37
xG 0.47–1.09 (30%)attempts 13–15goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Fraser – Gelinas10:31
xG 0.37–0.36 (51%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Greene – Larsson12:40
xG 0.35–0.79 (31%)attempts 12–15goals 0–2
- Merrill – Severson14:18
xG 0.43–0.98 (30%)attempts 12–14goals 1–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestBergenheim – Brodziak – Haula10:47
xG 0.99–0.25 (80%)attempts 16–8goals 1–1
- Koivu – Stewart – Niederreiter13:50
xG 0.72–0.28 (72%)attempts 10–6goals 1–0
- Pominville – Parise – Granlund11:58
xG 0.52–0.33 (61%)attempts 17–11goals 1–0
- Vanek – Coyle – Fontaine9:57
xG 0.45–0.28 (61%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Brodin19:34
xG 1.35–0.28 (83%)attempts 27–9goals 1–1
- Spurgeon – Dumba2:30
xG 0.52–0.01 (98%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Leopold – Spurgeon13:30
xG 0.82–0.63 (57%)attempts 13–18goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 90% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).