Tue, Mar 10, 2015·Pepsi Center, Denver
Los Angeles Kings 5, Colorado Avalanche 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 312 | 113 | 15 | 530 |
| COL | 15 | 08 | 110 | 223 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:47LAKMarian GaborikPPAssists: Brayden McNabb, Justin Williams · Tip-in, 0.17 xG1–0
- P1 11:58LAKJeff CarterAssists: Jordan Nolan, Trevor Lewis · Snap, 0.11 xG2–0
- P1 12:53COLTyson BarrieAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P1 14:15LAKKyle CliffordGWGAssists: Justin Williams, Andrej Sekera · Slap, 0.04 xG3–1
- P2 15:03LAKKyle CliffordAssists: Anze Kopitar, Brayden McNabb · Wrist, 0.13 xG4–1
- P3 8:27COLAlex TanguayAssists: Marc-Andre Cliche, Dennis Everberg · Tip-in, 0.16 xG4–2
- P3 9:56LAKJake MuzzinAssists: Nicholas Shore, Justin Williams · Slap, 0.04 xG5–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:33LAKJarret Stoll: Hooking2 min
- P1 6:20COLJarome Iginla: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 16:02COLMatt Duchene: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:54LAKJarret Stoll: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:29COLDennis Everberg: Interference2 min
- P2 12:13LAKKyle Clifford: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lewis won the faceoff against Mitchell
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Clifford – Shore4:28
xG 0.30–0.08 (80%)attempts 7–2goals 2–0
- Brown – Clifford – Shore2:08
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Carter – King – Toffoli9:46
xG 0.11–0.12 (48%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Gaborik – Brown – Kopitar3:03
xG 0.04–0.11 (26%)attempts 5–1goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGreene – Muzzin13:45
xG 0.43–0.25 (63%)attempts 16–9goals 1–0
- Sekera – McNabb12:43
xG 0.40–0.24 (63%)attempts 13–5goals 3–1
- Regehr – Doughty15:49
xG 0.14–0.39 (26%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestIginla – McLeod – Duchene6:15
xG 0.37–0.07 (85%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Tanguay – Cliche – Everberg4:30
xG 0.21–0.09 (69%)attempts 5–2goals 1–1
- Brière – McLeod – Cliche3:56
xG 0.16–0.05 (75%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Brière – O'Reilly – Landeskog5:59
xG 0.02–0.01 (68%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGuenin – Barrie12:08
xG 0.55–0.33 (62%)attempts 11–14goals 2–0
- Stuart – Barrie3:24
xG 0.24–0.15 (62%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Stuart – Holden10:07
xG 0.17–0.20 (46%)attempts 4–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).