Wed, Mar 11, 2015·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Anaheim Ducks 3, Calgary Flames 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 211 | 112 | 09 | 332 |
| CGY | 216 | 34 | 13 | 623 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:22ANARyan GetzlafUnassisted · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 2:51ANARyan GetzlafPPAssists: Ryan Kesler, Kyle Palmieri · Slap, 0.11 xG2–0
- P1 10:32CGYMatt StajanAssists: David Jones, Kris Russell · Snap, 0.31 xG2–1
- P1 15:25CGYJohnny GaudreauAssists: Josh Jooris, Kris Russell · Backhand, 0.05 xG2–2
- P2 7:28CGYMatt StajanAssists: Micheal Ferland, Brandon Bollig · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–3
- P2 8:53CGYSean MonahanPPGWGAssists: Dennis Wideman · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–4
- P2 13:59CGYJohnny GaudreauPPAssists: Dennis Wideman, Kris Russell · Snap, 0.08 xG2–5
- P2 18:59ANAHampus LindholmUnassisted · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–5
- P3 15:17CGYJiri HudlerAssists: Mikael Backlund, Dennis Wideman · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–6
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:12CGYBrandon Bollig: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 7:55CGYDeryk Engelland: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:55ANAPatrick Maroon: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:55ANACorey Perry: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:11CGYDennis Wideman: High sticking2 min
- P1 15:38ANAJakob Silfverberg: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P2 8:03ANARyan Getzlaf: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 13:23ANARyan Getzlaf: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 17:40CGYJosh Jooris: Interference2 min
- P2 18:22ANARyan Kesler: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:46ANAAndrew Cogliano: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Getzlaf won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Perry – Maroon8:15
xG 0.55–0.09 (86%)attempts 13–3goals 1–0
- Cogliano – Silfverberg – Rakell5:22
xG 0.34–0.13 (73%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Thompson – Etem – Sekac5:03
xG 0.18–0.17 (50%)attempts 5–2goals 0–1
- Fleischmann – Kesler – Palmieri5:56
xG 0.13–0.83 (14%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Lindholm12:58
xG 0.37–0.15 (72%)attempts 13–6goals 0–1
- Wisniewski – Stoner8:06
xG 0.51–0.33 (61%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
- Despres – Fowler7:55
xG 0.34–1.05 (25%)attempts 6–9goals 1–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- Stajan – Bollig – Ferland3:51
xG 0.17–0.16 (51%)attempts 2–4goals 1–0
- Raymond – Colborne – Jooris5:41
xG 0.11–0.18 (38%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Hudler – Gaudreau – Monahan7:11
xG 0.26–0.35 (43%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Jones – Backlund – Bouma6:47
xG 0.06–0.38 (14%)attempts 2–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Russell9:52
xG 0.90–0.32 (74%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Schlemko – Diaz7:42
xG 0.34–0.24 (59%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Engelland – Brodie9:49
xG 0.19–0.66 (22%)attempts 4–17goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).