Thu, Mar 12, 2015·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Edmonton Oilers 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 05 | 216 | 28 | 429 |
| PIT | 312 | 111 | 211 | 634 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:16PITBrandon SutterSHAssists: Daniel Winnik, Ben Lovejoy · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 9:37PITBrandon SutterAssists: Steve Downie, Daniel Winnik · Wrist, 0.21 xG0–2
- P1 13:36PITDavid PerronAssists: Sidney Crosby, Patric Hornqvist · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–3
- P2 1:01PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Kris Letang, Evgeni Malkin · Slap, 0.06 xG0–4
- P2 12:07EDMAnton LanderPPAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Jordan Eberle · Wrist, 0.44 xG1–4
- P2 15:11EDMJordan EberleAssists: Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Mark Fayne · Backhand, 0.25 xG2–4
- P3 4:51EDMBenoit PouliotPPAssists: Derek Roy, Oscar Klefbom · Snap, 0.18 xG3–4
- P3 10:04EDMDerek RoyAssists: Nail Yakupov · Wrist, 0.33 xG4–4
- P3 14:38PITSteve DownieGWGAssists: Maxim Lapierre, Nick Spaling · Wrist, 0.30 xG4–5
- P3 15:44PITPatric HornqvistAssists: Sidney Crosby, David Perron · Snap, 0.12 xG4–6
Penalties (11)
- P1 3:21PITNick Spaling: Interference2 min
- P1 6:13EDMRob Klinkhammer: Cross checking2 min
- P1 14:21PITChris Kunitz: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:55PITIan Cole: Fighting5 min
- P1 18:55EDMMatt Hendricks: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 0:29EDMDerek Roy: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:18PITBen Lovejoy: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:38EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Cross checking2 min
- P2 18:38PITKris Letang: High sticking2 min
- P3 3:40PITSteve Downie: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 17:36EDMAnton Lander: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Malkin won the faceoff against Roy
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHendricks – Gordon – Klinkhammer10:21
xG 0.58–0.20 (74%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Roy – Purcell – Yakupov12:38
xG 1.20–0.93 (56%)attempts 18–13goals 1–2
- Hamilton – Lander – Fraser7:40
xG 0.04–0.16 (22%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Pouliot – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins11:04
xG 1.05–1.20 (46%)attempts 12–15goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestFayne – Marincin13:00
xG 0.88–0.44 (67%)attempts 11–9goals 1–1
- Schultz – Klefbom15:10
xG 0.71–0.68 (51%)attempts 16–16goals 0–2
- Ference – Aulie12:56
xG 0.44–1.15 (28%)attempts 14–14goals 0–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Hornqvist – Perron10:34
xG 1.30–0.35 (79%)attempts 19–6goals 2–0
- Winnik – Sutter – Bennett9:12
xG 0.31–0.33 (49%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Lapierre – Downie – Spaling6:20
xG 0.39–0.65 (38%)attempts 4–7goals 1–1
- Kunitz – Malkin – Comeau12:23
xG 0.31–0.63 (33%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScuderi – Cole13:16
xG 1.34–0.24 (85%)attempts 20–10goals 1–0
- Martin – Letang12:23
xG 0.72–0.55 (57%)attempts 14–13goals 2–0
- Lovejoy – Pouliot12:59
xG 0.48–1.89 (20%)attempts 8–17goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).