Fri, Mar 13, 2015·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Calgary Flames 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 16 | 115 | 17 | 328 |
| CGY | 414 | 26 | 08 | 628 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:06CGYJohnny GaudreauAssists: Jiri Hudler, Sean Monahan · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–1
- P1 7:07CGYDrew ShoreAssists: TJ Brodie, Mason Raymond · Wrist, 0.26 xG0–2
- P1 8:47TORRichard PanikPPAssists: Morgan Rielly, Jake Gardiner · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–2
- P1 11:40CGYMikael BacklundSHUnassisted · Snap, 0.13 xG1–3
- P1 14:38CGYSean MonahanSHGWGAssists: TJ Brodie, Deryk Engelland · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–4
- P2 1:29CGYSean MonahanAssists: Jiri Hudler, Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–5
- P2 4:56TORDavid BoothAssists: Leo Komarov, Eric Brewer · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–5
- P2 8:16CGYJiri HudlerPPAssists: Dennis Wideman, Johnny Gaudreau · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–6
- P3 0:29TORDavid BoothAssists: Jake Gardiner, Dion Phaneuf · Wrist, 0.01 xG3–6
Penalties (11)
- P1 7:59CGYBrandon Bollig: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 10:05CGYLance Bouma: Kneeing5 min
- P1 10:05CGYLance Bouma: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:05TORZach Sill: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:05CGYLance Bouma: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 7:09TORMorgan Rielly: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 14:46TORBrandon Kozun: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:27CGYJoe Colborne: Illegal check to head2 min
- P3 2:46CGYMicheal Ferland: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:46TORTJ Brennan: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:21CGYJiri Hudler: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Holland
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestLupul – Komarov – Holland6:13
xG 0.43–0.03 (94%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Holland – Panik4:27
xG 0.13–0.11 (53%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Kessel – Bozak – Panik4:08
xG 0.11–0.11 (51%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Booth – Smith – van Riemsdyk4:58
xG 0.02–0.13 (14%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Gardiner11:10
xG 0.46–0.25 (64%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Gardiner – Rielly2:09
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Brewer – Gardiner3:08
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestHudler – Gaudreau – Monahan9:53
xG 0.75–0.44 (63%)attempts 11–7goals 2–0
- Jones – Backlund – Bouma2:14
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Stajan – Bollig – Ferland5:14
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Raymond – Colborne – Shore9:35
xG 0.33–0.25 (57%)attempts 3–16goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – Brodie15:40
xG 0.68–0.14 (83%)attempts 8–13goals 1–1
- Schlemko – Diaz14:11
xG 0.32–0.15 (68%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1
- Wideman – Russell11:41
xG 0.87–0.71 (55%)attempts 15–17goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).