Sat, Mar 14, 2015·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Detroit Red Wings 2, Philadelphia Flyers 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 04 | 118 | 111 | 233 |
| PHI | 215 | 16 | 415 | 736 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:22PHIWayne SimmondsPPAssists: Brayden Schenn, Mark Streit · Tip-in, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 17:07PHINicklas GrossmannAssists: Sean Couturier, Wayne Simmonds · Snap, 0.15 xG0–2
- P2 4:14DETJustin AbdelkaderAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Danny DeKeyser · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–2
- P2 13:39PHIBrayden SchennPPGWGAssists: Wayne Simmonds, Claude Giroux · Backhand, 0.30 xG1–3
- P3 0:11PHIBrayden SchennAssists: Jakub Voracek, Claude Giroux · Wrist, 0.35 xG1–4
- P3 8:22PHIPierre-Edouard BellemareAssists: Zac Rinaldo, Vincent Lecavalier · Snap, 0.18 xG1–5
- P3 10:57DETErik ColePPAssists: Marek Zidlicky, Pavel Datsyuk · Deflected, 0.16 xG2–5
- P3 16:40PHIMatt ReadPPAssists: Andrew MacDonald, Carlo Colaiacovo · Tip-in, 0.16 xG2–6
- P3 17:18PHIZac RinaldoAssists: Ryan White, Michael Raffl · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–7
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:10DETJustin Abdelkader: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 6:30DETNiklas Kronwall: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:33PHIWayne Simmonds: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:02DETPavel Datsyuk: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 9:14PHINicklas Grossmann: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 12:45PHIWayne Simmonds: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:45PHIWayne Simmonds: Misconduct10 min
- P3 15:19DETDanny DeKeyser: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Datsyuk won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestDatsyuk – Tatar – Sheahan7:16
xG 0.91–0.47 (66%)attempts 14–4goals 0–1
- Cole – Zetterberg – Abdelkader11:10
xG 0.65–0.30 (68%)attempts 10–7goals 1–1
- Weiss – Miller – Glendening4:33
xG 0.11–0.01 (89%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Datsyuk – Tatar – Glendening2:25
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestQuincey – DeKeyser9:46
xG 0.61–0.18 (77%)attempts 11–5goals 1–1
- Kronwall – Smith7:40
xG 0.80–0.48 (63%)attempts 14–4goals 0–1
- Zidlicky – Ericsson3:45
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Voracek – Schenn11:45
xG 0.94–0.75 (56%)attempts 14–13goals 1–0
- White – Rinaldo – Raffl10:43
xG 0.30–0.11 (73%)attempts 9–6goals 1–0
- Lecavalier – VandeVelde – Bellemare8:39
xG 0.37–0.24 (61%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Read – Couturier9:43
xG 0.32–0.43 (43%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestColaiacovo – Schenn13:27
xG 0.78–0.42 (65%)attempts 21–11goals 0–0
- Streit – Schultz16:02
xG 0.90–0.87 (51%)attempts 13–19goals 1–0
- Grossmann – MacDonald14:19
xG 0.50–0.59 (46%)attempts 9–12goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).