Sat, Mar 14, 2015·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Toronto Maple Leafs 1, Vancouver Canucks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 06 | 015 | 18 | 129 |
| VAN | 112 | 212 | 111 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:44VANChris HigginsAssists: Brad Richardson, Derek Dorsett · Deflected, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 6:09VANDerek DorsettGWGAssists: Nick Bonino · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–2
- P2 6:41VANJannik HansenAssists: Ronalds Kenins, Bo Horvat · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–3
- P3 12:38TORPhil KesselUnassisted · Backhand, 0.37 xG1–3
- P3 17:02VANShawn MatthiasENAssists: Derek Dorsett, Kevin Bieksa · Wrist, 0.59 xG1–4
Penalties (15)
- P1 6:48TORJake Gardiner: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 4:07VANZack Kassian: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:59VANLuca Sbisa: Holding2 min
- P2 9:05VANChris Tanev: Hooking2 min
- P2 10:41VANYannick Weber: Holding2 min
- P2 16:33TORDion Phaneuf: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:33VANZack Kassian: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:33VANZack Kassian: Misconduct10 min
- P2 16:33VANZack Kassian: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 19:07TORAndrew MacWilliam: High sticking2 min
- P3 3:14VANDan Hamhuis: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:15TORJake Gardiner: Slashing2 min
- P3 11:31VANAlexander Edler: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:38VANHenrik Sedin: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P3 19:38VANJannik Hansen: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Sedin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestLupul – Komarov – Smith7:43
xG 0.47–0.39 (55%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Kessel – Bozak – Panik8:13
xG 0.20–0.37 (35%)attempts 6–7goals 0–2
- Lindstrom – Sill – Kozun5:37
xG 0.08–0.49 (14%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Booth – van Riemsdyk – Kadri9:25
xG 0.19–1.41 (12%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Brewer – MacWilliam2:20
xG 0.05–0.03 (60%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Brennan2:16
xG 0.05–0.08 (40%)attempts 3–1goals 0–1
- Brennan – MacWilliam7:09
xG 0.23–0.29 (44%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestHansen – Horvat – Kenins8:22
xG 0.63–0.02 (96%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Kassian5:35
xG 0.82–0.31 (73%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Higgins – Richardson – Dorsett6:16
xG 0.41–0.25 (62%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
- Vrbata – Matthias – Bonino7:31
xG 0.09–0.10 (48%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBieksa – Sbisa10:22
xG 0.86–0.08 (91%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Weber13:41
xG 0.96–0.40 (70%)attempts 14–11goals 2–0
- Edler – Tanev11:51
xG 0.84–0.43 (66%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).