Sat, Mar 14, 2015·Gila River Arena, Glendale
New Jersey Devils 4, Arizona Coyotes 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 06 | 112 | 311 | 429 |
| ARI | 013 | 010 | 18 | 131 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 18:03NJDAdam HenriquePPAssists: Travis Zajac, Damon Severson · Wrist, 0.38 xG1–0
- P3 0:50NJDStephen GiontaGWGAssists: Jordin Tootoo, Damon Severson · Wrist, 0.33 xG2–0
- P3 6:06ARIShane DoanAssists: Mark Arcobello, Tobias Rieder · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–1
- P3 6:25NJDJordin TootooAssists: Michael Cammalleri, Travis Zajac · Backhand, 0.13 xG3–1
- P3 9:25NJDMichael CammalleriAssists: Andy Greene, Adam Larsson · Wrist, 0.19 xG4–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 2:45NJDJordin Tootoo: Roughing2 min
- P1 2:45ARIB.J. Crombeen: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:45NJDJordin Tootoo: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:40ARILauri Korpikoski: Cross checking2 min
- P2 2:24ARIMichael Stone: High sticking2 min
- P2 16:16ARIB.J. Crombeen: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 14:20NJDTuomo Ruutu: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:20ARIMichael Stone: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Chipchura
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestGomez – Bernier – Henrique11:53
xG 0.67–0.37 (64%)attempts 6–18goals 0–0
- Zubrus – Ryder – Gionta9:20
xG 0.51–0.52 (50%)attempts 8–10goals 0–1
- Cammalleri – Tootoo – Zajac9:58
xG 0.39–0.76 (34%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestFraser – Gelinas9:11
xG 0.73–0.24 (75%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Merrill – Severson12:31
xG 0.94–0.56 (63%)attempts 13–11goals 2–0
- Greene – Larsson12:54
xG 0.47–1.25 (27%)attempts 10–21goals 1–1
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestMoss – McGinn – Arcobello5:23
xG 0.26–0.07 (80%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Doan – Chipchura – Rieder6:22
xG 0.27–0.17 (60%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Erat – Gagner – Cunningham12:29
xG 1.01–1.07 (49%)attempts 22–8goals 0–1
- Doan – Arcobello – Rieder6:06
xG 0.30–0.39 (43%)attempts 8–7goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMoore – Murphy14:12
xG 0.57–0.34 (63%)attempts 13–13goals 0–1
- Campbell – Dahlbeck14:46
xG 0.55–0.61 (47%)attempts 18–15goals 0–1
- Stone – Ekman-Larsson15:56
xG 0.91–1.00 (48%)attempts 20–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).