Sat, Mar 14, 2015·Pepsi Center, Denver
Calgary Flames 2, Colorado Avalanche 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 012 | 07 | 212 | 231 |
| COL | 06 | 211 | 19 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 9:40COLAlex TanguayPPAssists: Jarome Iginla, Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 11:27COLRyan O'ReillyAssists: Alex Tanguay, Nate Guenin · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–2
- P3 3:54CGYDavid JonesAssists: Mikael Backlund, Lance Bouma · Deflected, 0.18 xG1–2
- P3 4:22COLJohn MitchellGWGAssists: Matt Duchene, Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–3
- P3 5:48CGYLance BoumaAssists: David Jones, Mikael Backlund · Slap, 0.01 xG2–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 12:44COLGabriel Landeskog: Interference2 min
- P2 8:42CGYJiri Hudler: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 17:22COLNate Guenin: Holding2 min
- P3 12:05COLJan Hejda: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Monahan won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestStajan – Shore – Bollig5:50
xG 0.23–0.04 (86%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Jones – Backlund – Bouma11:06
xG 0.23–0.10 (71%)attempts 7–11goals 2–0
- Hudler – Gaudreau – Monahan14:50
xG 0.36–0.40 (47%)attempts 18–12goals 0–0
- Raymond – Colborne – Jooris11:41
xG 0.17–0.39 (30%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchlemko – Diaz9:28
xG 0.32–0.07 (82%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Schlemko – Brodie2:18
xG 0.02–0.01 (57%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Engelland – Brodie13:07
xG 0.35–0.40 (47%)attempts 15–16goals 0–2
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestIginla – Mitchell – Duchene13:44
xG 0.56–0.23 (71%)attempts 11–11goals 1–2
- Tanguay – O'Reilly – Landeskog16:17
xG 0.66–0.34 (66%)attempts 18–18goals 1–0
- McLeod – Cliche – Everberg7:59
xG 0.11–0.07 (60%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Brière – Caron – Hamilton5:24
xG 0.02–0.12 (14%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – Holden16:35
xG 0.39–0.17 (69%)attempts 17–15goals 1–0
- Guenin – Barrie17:00
xG 0.38–0.26 (59%)attempts 15–19goals 1–1
- Hejda – Redmond11:44
xG 0.52–0.40 (56%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).