Sun, Mar 15, 2015·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Carolina Hurricanes 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 09 | 314 | 04 | 327 |
| CBJ | 16 | 17 | 011 | 224 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:59CBJNick FolignoPPAssists: Ryan Johansen · Wrist, 0.42 xG0–1
- P2 8:11CARJustin FaulkPPAssists: Victor Rask, Andrej Nestrasil · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 9:45CARRon HainseyAssists: Chris Terry, Andrej Nestrasil · Snap, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 12:27CBJScott HartnellAssists: Marko Dano, Sergei Bobrovsky · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–2
- P2 14:00CARBrad MaloneGWGAssists: Brett Bellemore, Patrick Dwyer · Snap, 0.09 xG3–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:04CARVictor Rask: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:11CBJFedor Tyutin: Interference2 min
- P1 16:48CBJFedor Tyutin: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:00CARPatrick Dwyer: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 0:00CARElias Lindholm: Bench2 min
- P2 0:22CBJScott Hartnell: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:20CBJDavid Savard: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:56CBJRyan Murray: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 10:37CARBrett Bellemore: Delaying game2 min
- P3 11:49CBJCam Atkinson: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Johansen won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Gerbe – Staal11:44
xG 0.71–0.20 (78%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Semin – Skinner – Lindholm5:13
xG 0.24–0.19 (55%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Terry – Nestrasil – Rask7:48
xG 0.13–0.20 (39%)attempts 4–6goals 1–1
- McClement – Dwyer – Malone9:58
xG 0.12–0.31 (28%)attempts 3–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Faulk12:00
xG 0.79–0.40 (66%)attempts 17–12goals 1–0
- Hainsey – Bellemore2:59
xG 0.29–0.01 (96%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Liles – Bellemore3:35
xG 0.03–0.01 (78%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestHartnell – Dano – Wennberg9:48
xG 0.34–0.20 (63%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Boll – Letestu – Tropp7:13
xG 0.16–0.02 (87%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Bourque – Foligno – Anisimov2:53
xG 0.04–0.09 (33%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
- Foligno – Atkinson – Johansen6:21
xG 0.28–0.34 (46%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestProut – Connauton13:10
xG 0.50–0.36 (58%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1
- Tyutin – Murray12:57
xG 0.25–0.40 (39%)attempts 9–13goals 1–1
- Johnson – Savard14:18
xG 0.36–0.60 (38%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).