Tue, Mar 17, 2015·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Philadelphia Flyers 1, Vancouver Canucks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 08 | 110 | 010 | 128 |
| VAN | 09 | 110 | 316 | 435 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 10:42PHIMichael RafflAssists: Claude Giroux, Wayne Simmonds · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 14:28VANAlexander EdlerAssists: Brad Richardson, Derek Dorsett · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–1
- P3 6:44VANAlexandre BurrowsGWGAssists: Daniel Sedin, Alexander Edler · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
- P3 7:01VANAlexandre BurrowsAssists: Daniel Sedin, Luca Sbisa · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–3
- P3 19:50VANRadim VrbataENAssists: Shawn Matthias · Wrist, 0.66 xG1–4
Penalties (7)
- P2 6:51VANDan Hamhuis: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:41VANDan Hamhuis: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:41PHIJakub Voracek: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:28PHIAndrew MacDonald: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 14:28VANDerek Dorsett: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 11:04VANBo Horvat: High sticking2 min
- P3 14:26PHILuke Schenn: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Giroux won the faceoff against Sedin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestWhite – Rinaldo – Cousins8:16
xG 0.41–0.34 (55%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Schenn – Couturier7:59
xG 0.30–0.29 (51%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
- Lecavalier – VandeVelde – Bellemare7:55
xG 0.23–0.25 (48%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
- Giroux – Voracek – Raffl10:44
xG 0.40–0.66 (38%)attempts 13–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestColaiacovo – MacDonald2:00
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Grossmann – MacDonald14:44
xG 0.49–0.46 (51%)attempts 8–14goals 1–1
- Colaiacovo – Schenn13:10
xG 0.55–0.73 (43%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestHansen – Horvat – Kenins9:17
xG 0.61–0.26 (70%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Sedin – Sedin – Burrows11:35
xG 0.66–0.35 (66%)attempts 17–10goals 2–0
- Vrbata – Matthias – Bonino10:05
xG 0.46–0.16 (74%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Higgins – Richardson – Dorsett10:14
xG 0.19–0.67 (22%)attempts 4–16goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Sbisa2:54
xG 0.60–0.02 (97%)attempts 6–3goals 2–0
- Hamhuis – Tanev2:17
xG 0.20–0.04 (85%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Edler – Tanev13:41
xG 0.61–0.46 (57%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).