Thu, Mar 19, 2015·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Washington Capitals 3, Minnesota Wild 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 08 | 212 | 17 | 327 |
| MIN | 08 | 19 | 113 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 15:25WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Karl Alzner, Matt Niskanen · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–0
- P2 16:04WSHEvgeny KuznetsovUnassisted · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–0
- P2 19:51MINChristian FolinAssists: Zach Parise, Mikael Granlund · Snap, 0.07 xG2–1
- P3 3:05WSHAlex OvechkinGWGAssists: Nicklas Backstrom · Snap, 0.03 xG3–1
- P3 14:04MINJared SpurgeonPPAssists: Thomas Vanek, Mikael Granlund · Tip-in, 0.40 xG3–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 11:33MINSean Bergenheim: Interference2 min
- P1 11:33WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:36MINMikko Koivu: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:49MINJordan Leopold: Holding2 min
- P2 9:40WSHMike Green: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:45WSHTom Wilson: Embellishment2 min
- P2 14:45MINZach Parise: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:33MINChris Stewart: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:36MINChris Stewart: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:21WSHJason Chimera: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 19:58WSHJohn Carlson: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestLaich – Latta – Wilson8:00
xG 0.88–0.18 (83%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Ovechkin – Backstrom – Johansson9:28
xG 0.34–0.15 (70%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Glencross – Brouwer – Kuznetsov8:36
xG 0.02–0.18 (12%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
- Chimera – Ward – Fehr9:58
xG 0.41–0.70 (37%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Carlson11:03
xG 0.86–0.17 (83%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Niskanen – Alzner13:53
xG 0.54–0.29 (65%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
- Green – Schmidt10:15
xG 0.18–0.10 (65%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Parise – Granlund11:37
xG 0.84–0.38 (69%)attempts 17–10goals 1–0
- Koivu – Stewart – Niederreiter9:43
xG 0.17–0.08 (68%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Vanek – Coyle – Fontaine9:25
xG 0.16–0.18 (46%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Bergenheim – Brodziak – Haula4:52
xG 0.15–0.18 (45%)attempts 3–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBrodin – Dumba11:39
xG 0.78–0.60 (56%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Suter – Dumba2:51
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Suter – Brodin2:44
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).