Thu, Mar 19, 2015·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Colorado Avalanche 5, Arizona Coyotes 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 28 | 113 | 28 | 529 |
| ARI | 112 | 06 | 112 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:24ARIOliver Ekman-LarssonAssists: Sam Gagner, Shane Doan · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 8:15COLRyan O'ReillyAssists: Gabriel Landeskog, Alex Tanguay · Wrist, 0.35 xG1–1
- P1 8:44COLJarome IginlaAssists: John Mitchell, Jan Hejda · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 8:09COLFreddie HamiltonGWGAssists: Brad Stuart, Daniel Brière · Tip-in, 0.12 xG3–1
- P3 11:53ARIOliver Ekman-LarssonAssists: Lauri Korpikoski, Brandon Gormley · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–2
- P3 14:51COLMatt DucheneAssists: Dennis Everberg · Wrist, 0.38 xG4–2
- P3 19:47COLGabriel LandeskogENAssists: Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.66 xG5–2
Penalties (3)
- P1 14:49ARIDavid Moss: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:30ARIKlas Dahlbeck: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 9:47COLNate Guenin: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gagner won the faceoff against Duchene
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestTanguay – O'Reilly – Landeskog12:23
xG 0.97–0.49 (66%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
- Brière – Caron – Hamilton7:22
xG 0.22–0.26 (46%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
- Iginla – Mitchell – Duchene13:42
xG 0.44–0.53 (46%)attempts 8–16goals 1–0
- McLeod – Cliche – Everberg10:10
xG 0.33–0.71 (32%)attempts 6–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestStuart – Holden17:04
xG 1.09–0.56 (66%)attempts 15–12goals 2–0
- Hejda – Redmond16:05
xG 0.37–0.42 (46%)attempts 7–15goals 1–0
- Guenin – Barrie13:16
xG 0.55–1.00 (35%)attempts 12–16goals 0–1
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestMoss – Arcobello – Rieder7:32
xG 0.33–0.07 (82%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Crombeen – Korpikoski – Vitale2:21
xG 0.29–0.03 (89%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Doan – Erat – Gagner11:01
xG 0.89–0.66 (57%)attempts 14–8goals 1–1
- Crombeen – Vitale – McGinn5:18
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStone – Ekman-Larsson18:17
xG 1.06–0.70 (60%)attempts 27–13goals 1–1
- Gormley – Murphy7:46
xG 0.33–0.38 (47%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Moore – Gormley3:59
xG 0.02–0.20 (10%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).