Fri, Mar 20, 2015·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Detroit Red Wings 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 013 | 111 | 07 | 131 |
| TBL | 011 | 114 | 27 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:22TBLAnton StralmanAssists: Victor Hedman, Ondrej Palat · Wrist, 0.29 xG0–1
- P2 6:57DETTomas TatarPPUnassisted · Backhand, 0.24 xG1–1
- P3 10:31TBLAlex KillornGWGAssists: Victor Hedman, Jonathan Drouin · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
- P3 19:32TBLSteven StamkosENAssists: Brian Boyle, Ondrej Palat · Wrist, 0.67 xG1–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 4:45TBLRyan Callahan: Charging2 min
- P1 4:45DETDarren Helm: Roughing2 min
- P1 4:45TBLRyan Callahan: Roughing2 min
- P1 16:15DETJustin Abdelkader: Holding2 min
- P2 6:30TBLVictor Hedman: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 11:52DETTeemu Pulkkinen: Interference2 min
- P2 15:17DETHenrik Zetterberg: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:23TBLJT Brown: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Boyle won the faceoff against Glendening
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Abdelkader – Nyquist2:49
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Miller – Jurco – Glendening9:32
xG 0.26–0.19 (57%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- Helm – Tatar – Sheahan13:07
xG 0.34–0.32 (52%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Andersson – Nyquist – Pulkkinen6:17
xG 0.13–0.24 (35%)attempts 2–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestZidlicky – Smith13:24
xG 0.38–0.21 (64%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Quincey – DeKeyser16:14
xG 0.16–0.31 (34%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Ericsson15:37
xG 0.44–0.64 (41%)attempts 9–12goals 0–2
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestJohnson – Palat – Kucherov10:08
xG 0.54–0.18 (75%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Killorn – Stamkos – Drouin8:50
xG 0.48–0.24 (66%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- Filppula – Callahan – Namestnikov5:58
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Morrow – Boyle – Brown5:30
xG 0.10–0.04 (70%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Hedman14:05
xG 0.65–0.27 (70%)attempts 20–8goals 1–0
- Barberio – Sustr14:53
xG 0.43–0.37 (54%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Carle – Garrison14:15
xG 0.18–0.17 (51%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).