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Ice Lab

Fri, Mar 20, 2015·Amalie Arena, Tampa

Detroit Red Wings 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 58% of the time.

TBL winsDET wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 0:42Shot by Stralman, saved by Howard
  3. P1 0:53Shot by Filppula, saved by Howard
  4. P1 1:20Shot by Sheahan, saved by Bishop
  5. P1 4:45Callahan: Charging (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Carle, Callahan, Killorn, Garrison, Stamkos · DET Quincey, Helm, Tatar, Sheahan, DeKeyser

  6. P1 4:45Helm: Roughing (2 min)4v5

    On ice: TBL Carle, Callahan, Killorn, Garrison, Stamkos · DET Quincey, Helm, Tatar, Sheahan, DeKeyser

  7. P1 4:45Callahan: Roughing (2 min)4v4

    On ice: TBL Carle, Callahan, Killorn, Garrison, Stamkos · DET Quincey, Helm, Tatar, Sheahan, DeKeyser

  8. P1 4:54Shot by Nyquist, saved by Bishop4v5
  9. P1 5:22Shot by Pulkkinen, saved by Bishop4v5
  10. P1 5:48Shot by Cole, saved by Bishop4v5
  11. P1 5:51Shot by Andersson, saved by Bishop4v5
  12. P1 6:22Shot by Pulkkinen, saved by Bishop4v5
  13. P1 7:12Shot by Stamkos, saved by Howard
  14. P1 7:32Shot by Sheahan, saved by Bishop
  15. P1 8:07Shot by Killorn, saved by Howard
  16. P1 8:14Shot by Stralman, saved by Howard
  17. P1 9:06Shot by Brown, saved by Howard
  18. P1 9:37Shot by Johnson, saved by Howard
  19. P1 9:59Shot by Nyquist, saved by Bishop
  20. P1 10:33Shot by Tatar, saved by Bishop
  21. P1 11:54Shot by Kucherov, saved by Howard
  22. P1 12:17Shot by Jurco, saved by Bishop
  23. P1 13:54Shot by Cole, saved by Bishop
  24. P1 14:45Shot by Helm, saved by Bishop
  25. P1 16:05Shot by Zidlicky, saved by Bishop
  26. P1 16:15Abdelkader: Holding (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Filppula, Stralman, Hedman, Namestnikov, Brown · DET Cole, Zetterberg, Quincey, Abdelkader, DeKeyser

  27. P1 17:54Shot by Kucherov, saved by Howard5v4
  28. P1 18:19Shot by Johnson, saved by Howard
  29. P1 19:08Shot by Brown, saved by Howard
  30. P1 0:00Period end
  31. P2 0:00Period start
  32. P2 0:40Shot by Zetterberg, saved by Bishop
  33. P2 1:21Shot by Hedman, saved by Howard
  34. P2 1:22Goal by Stralman (Hedman, Palat)+20 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Stralman, Johnson, Hedman, Palat, Kucherov · DET Cole, Zetterberg, Kronwall, Ericsson, Abdelkader

  35. P2 2:41Shot by Glendening, saved by Bishop
  36. P2 2:51Shot by Glendening, saved by Bishop
  37. P2 4:43Shot by Palat, saved by Howard
  38. P2 5:05Shot by Callahan, saved by Howard
  39. P2 5:42Shot by Stralman, saved by Howard
  40. P2 5:51Shot by Jurco, saved by Bishop
  41. P2 6:27Shot by Hedman, saved by Howard
  42. P2 6:30Hedman: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Filppula, Callahan, Stralman, Hedman, Namestnikov · DET Cole, Zetterberg, Quincey, Abdelkader, DeKeyser

  43. P2 6:39Shot by Cole, saved by Bishop4v5
  44. P2 6:54Shot by Cole, saved by Bishop4v5
  45. P2 6:56Shot by Cole, saved by Bishop4v5
  46. P2 6:57Goal by Tatar, unassisted4v5+19 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Boyle, Garrison, Brown, Sustr · DET Cole, Zidlicky, Helm, Tatar, Sheahan

  47. P2 7:58Shot by Killorn, saved by Howard
  48. P2 10:50Shot by Glendening, saved by Bishop
  49. P2 11:34Shot by Killorn, saved by Howard
  50. P2 11:38Shot by Stamkos, saved by Howard
  51. P2 11:52Pulkkinen: Interference (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Stamkos, Barberio, Brown, Sustr, Drouin · DET Kronwall, Zidlicky, Andersson, Nyquist, Pulkkinen

  52. P2 12:20Shot by Stamkos, saved by Howard5v4
  53. P2 13:06Shot by Kucherov, saved by Howard5v4
  54. P2 13:19Shot by Johnson, saved by Howard5v4
  55. P2 14:58Shot by Garrison, saved by Howard
  56. P2 15:17Zetterberg: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Filppula, Callahan, Stralman, Stamkos, Hedman, Namestnikov · DET Cole, Zetterberg, Zidlicky, Abdelkader, Smith

  57. P2 17:10Shot by Palat, saved by Howard5v4
  58. P2 17:55Shot by Abdelkader, saved by Bishop
  59. P2 19:28Shot by Zetterberg, saved by Bishop
  60. P2 0:00Period end
  61. P3 0:00Period start
  62. P3 4:06Shot by Hedman, saved by Howard
  63. P3 6:07Shot by Killorn, saved by Howard
  64. P3 6:26Shot by Stralman, saved by Howard
  65. P3 6:43Shot by Stamkos, saved by Howard
  66. P3 9:48Shot by Helm, saved by Bishop
  67. P3 10:31Goal by Killorn (Hedman, Drouin)+34 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Killorn, Garrison, Stamkos, Hedman, Drouin · DET Kronwall, Ericsson, Andersson, Nyquist, Pulkkinen

  68. P3 11:23Brown: Too many men on the ice (2 min)

    On ice: TBL Morrow, Boyle, Stralman, Hedman, Brown · DET Cole, Zetterberg, Quincey, Abdelkader, DeKeyser

  69. P3 12:38Shot by Boyle, saved by Howard4v5
  70. P3 14:27Shot by Andersson, saved by Bishop
  71. P3 17:09Shot by Smith, saved by Bishop
  72. P3 17:26Shot by Abdelkader, saved by Bishop
  73. P3 17:41Shot by Zetterberg, saved by Bishop
  74. P3 18:44Shot by Zetterberg, saved by Bishop5v6
  75. P3 18:45Shot by Tatar, saved by Bishop5v6
  76. P3 19:32Goal by Stamkos (Boyle, Palat)5v6+2 pts WP

    On ice: TBL Boyle, Garrison, Stamkos, Hedman, Palat · DET Cole, Kronwall, Zidlicky, Helm, Andersson, Sheahan

  77. P3 0:00Period end
  78. P3 0:00Final