Sat, Mar 21, 2015·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Arizona Coyotes 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 03 | 222 | 112 | 337 |
| ARI | 113 | 011 | 07 | 131 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:34ARITobias RiederSHAssists: David Moss · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–1
- P2 8:45PITBrandon SutterPPUnassisted · Deflected, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 12:21PITDaniel WinnikGWGAssists: Kris Letang, Sidney Crosby · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–1
- P3 19:48PITSidney CrosbyENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.55 xG3–1
Penalties (9)
- P1 0:38ARIMichael Stone: Holding2 min
- P1 2:41PITBeau Bennett: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 4:42ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: Holding2 min
- P1 11:13ARIShane Doan: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:13PITCraig Adams: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 7:38ARIJoe Vitale: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 17:21PITDavid Perron: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:22ARIMark Arcobello: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:19PITKris Letang: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against Chipchura
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestComeau – Winnik – Crosby3:22
xG 0.51–0.04 (93%)attempts 10–2goals 1–0
- Winnik – Spaling – Bennett3:26
xG 0.16–0.01 (96%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Comeau – Crosby2:34
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Lapierre – Spaling – Bennett2:53
xG 0.15–0.06 (71%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartin – Letang5:46
xG 0.30–0.04 (89%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Scuderi – Lovejoy6:41
xG 0.27–0.08 (77%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Scuderi – Martin2:36
xG 0.13–0.04 (76%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestDoan – Chipchura – Gagner12:49
xG 0.88–0.61 (59%)attempts 15–13goals 0–0
- Moss – Arcobello – Rieder6:52
xG 0.28–0.12 (70%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Crombeen – Vitale – McGinn5:49
xG 0.02–0.07 (24%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Korpikoski – Hodgman – Cunningham4:44
xG 0.10–0.17 (39%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMoore – Dahlbeck14:22
xG 0.91–0.68 (57%)attempts 12–21goals 0–0
- Stone – Ekman-Larsson13:48
xG 0.45–0.48 (48%)attempts 19–12goals 0–0
- Campbell – Murphy10:11
xG 0.06–0.20 (23%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).