Mon, Mar 23, 2015·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
San Jose Sharks 2, Ottawa Senators 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 010 | 212 | 09 | 231 |
| OTT | 110 | 010 | 417 | 537 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:09OTTMika ZibanejadAssists: Mike Hoffman, Bobby Ryan · Deflected, 0.22 xG0–1
- P2 12:47SJSJoe PavelskiPPAssists: Brent Burns, Patrick Marleau · Backhand, 0.17 xG1–1
- P2 13:17SJSChris TierneyAssists: Tommy Wingels, Matt Nieto · Backhand, 0.16 xG2–1
- P3 2:19OTTMika ZibanejadAssists: Bobby Ryan, Mike Hoffman · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–2
- P3 12:11OTTAlex ChiassonGWGAssists: Mark Stone, Cody Ceci · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–3
- P3 13:23OTTJean-Gabriel PageauAssists: Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–4
- P3 18:37OTTMike HoffmanENAssists: David Legwand, Bobby Ryan · Wrist, 0.67 xG2–5
Penalties (2)
- P2 12:29OTTMark Borowiecki: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 16:28SJSJustin Braun: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pavelski won the faceoff against Turris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Couture – Hertl7:55
xG 0.38–0.29 (57%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Thornton – Pavelski – Karlsson14:35
xG 0.52–0.57 (48%)attempts 17–10goals 0–1
- Wingels – Nieto – Tierney4:30
xG 0.16–0.22 (41%)attempts 4–5goals 1–1
- Scott – Smith – Goodrow7:08
xG 0.09–0.27 (25%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Vlasic – Braun19:28
xG 0.68–0.66 (51%)attempts 20–17goals 1–2
- Burns – Irwin14:57
xG 0.55–0.70 (44%)attempts 14–16goals 0–0
- Dillon – Mueller14:21
xG 0.25–0.76 (25%)attempts 11–10goals 0–2
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestCondra – Pageau – Lazar13:39
xG 1.05–0.40 (72%)attempts 16–9goals 1–1
- Ryan – Hoffman – Zibanejad12:44
xG 0.54–0.35 (61%)attempts 9–13goals 2–0
- Turris – Chiasson – Stone12:27
xG 0.76–0.60 (56%)attempts 16–16goals 1–0
- Legwand – Greening – Smith9:52
xG 0.08–0.20 (28%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWiercioch – Ceci14:42
xG 0.72–0.40 (64%)attempts 12–14goals 1–0
- Gryba – Borowiecki14:55
xG 0.69–0.43 (61%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
- Methot – Karlsson20:51
xG 0.74–0.61 (55%)attempts 18–23goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).