Mon, Mar 23, 2015·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Buffalo Sabres 3, Dallas Stars 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 19 | 114 | 15 | 328 |
| DAL | 117 | 010 | 312 | 439 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:39BUFBrian GiontaAssists: Marcus Foligno, Mikhail Grigorenko · Wrist, 0.38 xG1–0
- P1 19:31DALJamie BennAssists: Patrick Eaves, Patrik Nemeth · Tip-in, 0.17 xG1–1
- P2 11:07BUFBrian GiontaPPAssists: Matt Moulson, Johan Larsson · Deflected, 0.28 xG2–1
- P3 1:56DALJamie BennPPAssists: Alex Goligoski · Snap, 0.15 xG2–2
- P3 10:52BUFMatt MoulsonAssists: Tyler Ennis · Wrist, 0.37 xG3–2
- P3 12:35DALPatrick EavesAssists: Tyler Seguin, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–3
- P3 16:46DALCody EakinGWGAssists: John Klingberg, Ales Hemsky · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 14:53BUFCody Hodgson: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:55BUFMike Weber: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:14DALColton Sceviour: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:11DALBrett Ritchie: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 0:54BUFTyson Strachan: Delaying game2 min · PPG
- P3 6:14DALBrett Ritchie: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larsson won the faceoff against Eakin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestGionta – Foligno – Grigorenko12:05
xG 0.77–0.09 (90%)attempts 12–15goals 1–0
- Ellis – Dalpe – Schaller4:19
xG 0.19–0.05 (78%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Moulson – Ennis – Larsson11:39
xG 0.76–0.88 (46%)attempts 11–18goals 1–1
- Ellis – Dalpe – Deslauriers2:20
xG 0.00–0.28 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Ristolainen18:06
xG 1.05–0.69 (60%)attempts 18–32goals 1–1
- Meszaros – Zadorov11:13
xG 0.72–0.75 (49%)attempts 6–17goals 1–0
- Benoit – Strachan12:50
xG 0.30–0.51 (37%)attempts 10–26goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Hemsky – Eakin8:03
xG 0.51–0.16 (77%)attempts 19–3goals 1–0
- Fiddler – Sceviour – Roussel7:13
xG 0.37–0.12 (75%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- Eaves – Benn – Seguin7:51
xG 0.38–0.17 (69%)attempts 13–4goals 2–0
- Horcoff – McKenzie – Ritchie8:35
xG 0.49–0.35 (58%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNemeth – Klingberg12:20
xG 0.72–0.30 (71%)attempts 27–9goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Jokipakka10:24
xG 0.33–0.18 (64%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Nemeth – Jokipakka4:33
xG 0.06–0.02 (74%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).