Tue, Mar 24, 2015·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Florida Panthers 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 012 | 310 | 014 | 336 |
| TBL | 210 | 07 | 28 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:49TBLBrenden MorrowAssists: JT Brown · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–1
- P1 7:47TBLTyler JohnsonAssists: Ryan Callahan · Slap, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 6:16FLAJussi JokinenAssists: Brad Boyes, Erik Gudbranson · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 6:34FLABrandon PirriAssists: Vincent Trocheck · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- P2 8:14FLAJonathan HuberdeauAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Jaromir Jagr · Wrist, 0.25 xG3–2
- P3 1:30TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Andrej Sustr, Ondrej Palat · Wrap-around, 0.11 xG3–3
- P3 17:32TBLRyan CallahanGWGAssists: Alex Killorn, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–4
Penalties (2)
- P1 8:24TBLNikita Kucherov: Boarding2 min
- P1 14:06TBLValtteri Filppula: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Filppula won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestJagr – Huberdeau – Barkov14:45
xG 0.92–0.30 (75%)attempts 25–10goals 1–1
- MacKenzie – Kopecky – Upshall9:55
xG 0.08–0.12 (40%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Boyes – Jokinen – Bolland11:22
xG 0.21–0.59 (26%)attempts 8–10goals 1–2
- Hayes – Pirri – Trocheck11:59
xG 0.15–0.73 (17%)attempts 7–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Ekblad15:19
xG 0.80–0.26 (76%)attempts 16–6goals 0–1
- Mitchell – Gudbranson17:54
xG 0.58–0.46 (56%)attempts 19–13goals 2–2
- Kulikov – Petrovic17:54
xG 0.28–0.60 (32%)attempts 10–18goals 1–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestMorrow – Boyle – Brown6:12
xG 0.40–0.04 (90%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Johnson – Palat – Kucherov13:44
xG 0.53–0.28 (65%)attempts 10–9goals 1–1
- Killorn – Stamkos – Drouin10:27
xG 0.26–0.24 (52%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
- Callahan – Killorn – Stamkos5:57
xG 0.12–0.23 (34%)attempts 3–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Hedman16:33
xG 0.88–0.49 (64%)attempts 18–11goals 3–1
- Barberio – Sustr15:50
xG 0.54–0.26 (68%)attempts 11–11goals 1–1
- Carle – Garrison14:39
xG 0.25–0.35 (42%)attempts 8–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).