Wed, Mar 25, 2015·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Colorado Avalanche 3, Edmonton Oilers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 014 | 219 | 111 | 344 |
| EDM | 38 | 013 | 113 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:33EDMMartin MarincinAssists: Andrew Miller, Anton Lander · Snap, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 5:53EDMJordan EberleAssists: Oscar Klefbom, Benoit Pouliot · Backhand, 0.24 xG0–2
- P1 9:36EDMTaylor HallAssists: Anton Lander, Andrew Miller · Snap, 0.05 xG0–3
- P2 5:22COLJarome IginlaPPAssists: Tyson Barrie, Ryan O'Reilly · Slap, 0.06 xG1–3
- P2 10:31COLAlex TanguayAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Gabriel Landeskog · Wrist, 0.34 xG2–3
- P3 4:54COLRyan O'ReillyAssists: Alex Tanguay · Snap, 0.16 xG3–3
- P3 10:42EDMDerek RoyPPGWGAssists: Benoit Pouliot, Nail Yakupov · Wrist, 0.62 xG3–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 11:59EDMMartin Marincin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 3:08EDMRob Klinkhammer: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:59EDMMatt Hendricks: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 9:07COLJohn Mitchell: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 12:56EDMMartin Marincin: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:09EDMJustin Schultz: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Roy
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestTanguay – O'Reilly – Landeskog12:54
xG 1.59–0.71 (69%)attempts 20–14goals 2–1
- Iginla – Mitchell – Duchene14:10
xG 1.03–0.37 (74%)attempts 21–15goals 0–0
- Cliche – Caron – Hamilton2:46
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Caron – Hishon – Hamilton6:18
xG 0.30–0.14 (69%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGuenin – Barrie14:14
xG 1.46–0.36 (80%)attempts 23–12goals 1–0
- Hejda – Barrie3:42
xG 0.50–0.04 (92%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Stuart – Barrie2:02
xG 0.40–0.12 (77%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- Roy – Purcell – Yakupov12:56
xG 0.33–0.53 (39%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
- Lander – Hall – Miller13:03
xG 0.48–0.71 (40%)attempts 16–19goals 2–1
- Hendricks – Klinkhammer – Gazdic6:11
xG 0.03–0.35 (9%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Pouliot – Eberle – Nugent-Hopkins11:32
xG 0.72–1.08 (40%)attempts 16–14goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Nikitin – Marincin7:17
xG 0.20–0.15 (56%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Aulie – Klefbom2:28
xG 0.08–0.06 (60%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Nikitin – Klefbom3:06
xG 0.03–0.01 (69%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).