Wed, Mar 25, 2015·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Dallas Stars 4, Calgary Flames 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 013 | 39 | 07 | 01 | 1 | 430 |
| CGY | 06 | 215 | 112 | 01 | 0 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:47DALAles HemskyAssists: Patrik Nemeth, Tyler Seguin · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 10:47DALJamie BennPPAssists: Jason Spezza, Tyler Seguin · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–0
- P2 12:44CGYJohnny GaudreauAssists: Sean Monahan, Jiri Hudler · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 13:49CGYDeryk EngellandAssists: Lance Bouma · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–2
- P2 19:44DALAles HemskyAssists: Shawn Horcoff · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–2
- P3 11:19CGYDeryk EngellandAssists: Mason Raymond, Markus Granlund · Snap, 0.01 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. CGY Joe Colborne stopped
- 2. DAL Tyler Seguin scored
- 3. CGY Johnny Gaudreau stopped
- 4. DAL Colton Sceviour stopped
- 5. CGY Sean Monahan stopped
Penalties (10)
- P1 8:22CGYMarkus Granlund: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 17:55CGYLance Bouma: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:46DALAntoine Roussel: Interference2 min
- P2 4:49DALCody Eakin: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:21CGYJoe Colborne: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 17:47DALJason Spezza: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:58CGYRaphael Diaz: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:16CGYMikael Backlund: Holding2 min
- P3 11:39DALCurtis McKenzie: Boarding2 min
- P3 17:30CGYJoe Colborne: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Seguin won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestHorcoff – McKenzie – Ritchie6:48
xG 0.16–0.02 (87%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Eaves – Benn – Seguin9:19
xG 0.26–0.15 (64%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
- Fiddler – Sceviour – Roussel4:51
xG 0.15–0.10 (60%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
- Spezza – Hemsky – Eakin8:28
xG 0.17–0.31 (35%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNemeth – Klingberg12:38
xG 0.62–0.16 (79%)attempts 20–4goals 1–1
- Goligoski – Jokipakka11:33
xG 0.13–0.37 (26%)attempts 6–14goals 0–1
- Demers – Benn11:16
xG 0.00–0.27 (0%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestHudler – Gaudreau – Monahan9:08
xG 0.27–0.16 (62%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Raymond – Colborne – Granlund3:19
xG 0.09–0.01 (90%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Colborne – Granlund – Jooris3:34
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Backlund – Bouma – Jooris3:52
xG 0.12–0.06 (65%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – Brodie14:54
xG 0.47–0.27 (63%)attempts 17–10goals 2–0
- Schlemko – Diaz8:36
xG 0.02–0.07 (25%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Wideman – Russell12:11
xG 0.38–0.47 (45%)attempts 11–16goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).