Thu, Mar 26, 2015·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Arizona Coyotes 4, Buffalo Sabres 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 112 | 218 | 011 | 11 | 442 |
| BUF | 111 | 110 | 114 | 00 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:55ARIJordan SzwarzAssists: Kyle Chipchura, Craig Cunningham · Snap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 10:49BUFTyler EnnisAssists: Matt Moulson, Johan Larsson · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 8:37BUFRasmus RistolainenPPAssists: Tyler Ennis, Brian Gionta · Slap, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 11:29ARIOliver Ekman-LarssonAssists: Martin Erat, Mark Arcobello · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- P2 14:20ARIDavid MossAssists: Sam Gagner · Tip-in, 0.06 xG3–2
- P3 16:23BUFBrian GiontaPPUnassisted · Slap, 0.20 xG3–3
- OT 0:56ARISam GagnerPPGWGAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, John Moore · Slap, 0.20 xG4–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 14:57ARIB.J. Crombeen: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:14BUFMatt Moulson: Slashing2 min
- P1 18:04ARITye McGinn: Charging2 min
- P2 7:40ARIMichael Stone: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 9:26BUFJohan Larsson: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 15:51BUFNikita Zadorov: Holding2 min
- P3 0:59BUFMatt Moulson: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 4:29ARIConnor Murphy: Holding2 min
- P3 15:36ARIConnor Murphy: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 19:30BUFMike Weber: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larsson won the faceoff against Arcobello
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestErat – Moss – Gagner8:21
xG 0.46–0.15 (75%)attempts 12–3goals 1–0
- Crombeen – Vitale – McGinn8:30
xG 0.24–0.35 (41%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Doan – Arcobello – Rieder11:36
xG 0.24–0.36 (41%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Chipchura – Szwarz – Cunningham9:38
xG 0.27–0.88 (23%)attempts 8–14goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestDahlbeck – Murphy12:13
xG 0.45–0.31 (59%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
- Moore – Gormley11:36
xG 0.56–0.46 (55%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Stone – Ekman-Larsson15:59
xG 0.50–1.09 (31%)attempts 18–15goals 1–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestGionta – Foligno – Grigorenko6:35
xG 0.59–0.34 (63%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Gionta – Moulson – Larsson5:06
xG 0.38–0.14 (74%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Hodgson – Foligno – Grigorenko4:36
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Hodgson – Dalpe – Varone2:31
xG 0.03–0.08 (30%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Ristolainen12:06
xG 0.47–0.26 (64%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
- Meszaros – Bogosian2:19
xG 0.10–0.02 (83%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Benoit – Bogosian13:40
xG 0.50–0.56 (47%)attempts 10–17goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).