Thu, Mar 26, 2015·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Nashville Predators 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 24 | 19 | 06 | 319 |
| TBL | 112 | 17 | 011 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:28NSHMike RibeiroAssists: Roman Josi · Tip-in, 0.01 xG1–0
- P1 4:08NSHPaul GaustadAssists: Taylor Beck · Backhand, 0.19 xG2–0
- P1 19:31TBLVladislav NamestnikovAssists: Andrej Sustr, Mark Barberio · Wrap-around, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 6:47NSHMike SantorelliGWGAssists: Calle Jarnkrok, Viktor Stalberg · Wrist, 0.24 xG3–1
- P2 13:19TBLBrian BoyleAssists: JT Brown, Jonathan Drouin · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 9:28TBLBrian Boyle: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:58NSHSeth Jones: Holding2 min
- P2 2:15TBLTyler Johnson: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:15TBLTyler Johnson: High sticking2 min
- P2 9:15NSHShea Weber: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:07TBLAlex Killorn: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:33NSHColin Wilson: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:54NSHPaul Gaustad: Roughing2 min
- P3 8:00TBLJonathan Drouin: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:41NSHRoman Josi: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:48TBLMatt Carle: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Filppula won the faceoff against Ribeiro
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestSantorelli – Stalberg – Jarnkrok6:54
xG 0.74–0.09 (89%)attempts 5–5goals 1–1
- Gaustad – Beck – Bourque8:21
xG 0.21–0.23 (48%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
- Ribeiro – Smith – Forsberg8:25
xG 0.08–0.19 (30%)attempts 4–7goals 1–1
- Fisher – Wilson – Arvidsson7:40
xG 0.06–0.21 (22%)attempts 4–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Josi12:23
xG 0.72–0.35 (67%)attempts 11–13goals 2–0
- Franson – Ellis5:49
xG 0.05–0.12 (31%)attempts 2–4goals 0–2
- Ekholm – Jones12:53
xG 0.09–0.29 (24%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- Filppula – Namestnikov – Paquette8:55
xG 0.13–0.09 (59%)attempts 7–4goals 1–1
- Callahan – Killorn – Stamkos9:58
xG 0.31–0.29 (52%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
- Boyle – Brown – Drouin7:15
xG 0.17–0.24 (42%)attempts 8–3goals 1–1
- Johnson – Palat – Kucherov9:11
xG 0.29–0.38 (43%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCarle – Garrison11:16
xG 0.22–0.06 (78%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Barberio – Sustr9:17
xG 0.34–0.28 (55%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Hedman – Sustr2:51
xG 0.08–0.08 (50%)attempts 2–4goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).