Sat, Mar 28, 2015·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Arizona Coyotes 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 96% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 013 | 03 | 28 | 224 |
| PIT | 014 | 013 | 319 | 346 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 4:52ARITye McGinnAssists: Klas Dahlbeck, B.J. Crombeen · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–0
- P3 7:16PITDaniel WinnikAssists: Paul Martin, Sidney Crosby · Snap, 0.14 xG1–1
- P3 9:19PITSteve DowniePPAssists: Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin · Slap, 0.06 xG1–2
- P3 11:24PITSidney CrosbyPPGWGAssists: Derrick Pouliot, Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–3
- P3 18:09ARITobias RiederAssists: Shane Doan, Mark Arcobello · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–3
Penalties (14)
- P1 2:47PITMaxim Lapierre: Roughing2 min
- P1 2:47ARIB.J. Crombeen: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:45ARIShane Doan: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:45PITPatric Hornqvist: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:13PITBlake Comeau: Boarding5 min
- P1 13:13PITBlake Comeau: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 3:15ARIJohn Moore: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:50ARIMichael Stone: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 13:08PITChris Kunitz: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:22ARITye McGinn: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:29ARIShane Doan: Fighting5 min
- P2 16:29PITSteve Downie: Fighting5 min
- P3 8:18ARIAndrew Campbell: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 10:34ARIMichael Stone: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Malkin won the faceoff against Arcobello
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- Chipchura – Szwarz – Cunningham6:49
xG 0.09–0.16 (34%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Erat – Moss – Gagner9:12
xG 0.02–0.16 (11%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Crombeen – Vitale – McGinn5:57
xG 0.07–0.65 (10%)attempts 6–6goals 1–0
- Doan – Arcobello – Rieder9:11
xG 0.08–0.97 (8%)attempts 6–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Ekman-Larsson – Murphy2:17
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Campbell – Moore9:17
xG 0.10–0.21 (32%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Dahlbeck – Murphy10:43
xG 0.12–0.69 (15%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestWinnik – Crosby – Hornqvist7:44
xG 0.73–0.23 (76%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- Adams – Lapierre – Spaling5:05
xG 0.49–0.07 (87%)attempts 3–2goals 0–1
- Sutter – Spaling – Bennett5:45
xG 0.27–0.01 (96%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Malkin – Downie5:23
xG 0.18–0.00 (99%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartin – Letang7:23
xG 1.00–0.17 (85%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Scuderi – Cole10:46
xG 0.33–0.07 (84%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Scuderi – Martin2:47
xG 0.26–0.01 (95%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 96% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).