Sat, Mar 28, 2015·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Columbus Blue Jackets 4, St. Louis Blues 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 17 | 27 | 13 | 417 |
| STL | 09 | 29 | 013 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:06CBJWilliam KarlssonAssists: Scott Hartnell, Marko Dano · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 0:52STLPatrik BerglundAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Jori Lehtera · Snap, 0.16 xG1–1
- P2 11:39CBJJack JohnsonPPAssists: Fedor Tyutin, Brandon Dubinsky · Slap, 0.06 xG2–1
- P2 14:44STLVladimir TarasenkoPPAssists: Patrik Berglund, Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 19:39CBJBoone JennerGWGAssists: Ryan Johansen, Cam Atkinson · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–2
- P3 18:42CBJCam AtkinsonENAssists: Boone Jenner, David Savard · Wrist, 0.64 xG4–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 10:05CBJCorey Tropp: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 12:48CBJSergei Bobrovsky: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 1:34STLPatrik Berglund: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:00CBJJack Johnson: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:55CBJDavid Savard: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 10:00STLJay Bouwmeester: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 13:48CBJJeremy Morin: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P3 8:56CBJDavid Savard: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Dubinsky
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestAtkinson – Johansen – Jenner9:17
xG 0.37–0.23 (61%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Hartnell – Karlsson – Dano5:28
xG 0.06–0.05 (55%)attempts 2–4goals 1–0
- Letestu – Tropp – Morin2:35
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Hartnell – Morin – Karlsson3:45
xG 0.03–0.05 (40%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Johnson – Savard14:28
xG 0.26–0.39 (40%)attempts 6–16goals 1–0
- Goloubef – Connauton11:25
xG 0.31–0.57 (36%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Prout15:23
xG 0.20–0.48 (30%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBackes – Porter – Reaves2:44
xG 0.38–0.02 (94%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Steen – Backes – Porter2:51
xG 0.33–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Stastny – Berglund – Schwartz5:08
xG 0.11–0.02 (82%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Lehtera – Tarasenko – Jaskin5:09
xG 0.09–0.03 (73%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMichalek – Bouwmeester14:01
xG 0.83–0.10 (89%)attempts 14–6goals 1–0
- Shattenkirk – Pietrangelo4:04
xG 0.17–0.03 (83%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Gunnarsson – Pietrangelo11:24
xG 0.49–0.39 (55%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).