Sun, Mar 29, 2015·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Calgary Flames 5, Nashville Predators 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 210 | 213 | 17 | 530 |
| NSH | 19 | 011 | 19 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:17NSHRoman JosiAssists: Mike Santorelli, Calle Jarnkrok · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 9:13CGYLance BoumaAssists: Mikael Backlund · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–1
- P1 17:46CGYKris RussellAssists: Sean Monahan, Jiri Hudler · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 6:57CGYMicheal FerlandGWGAssists: Drew Shore, Matt Stajan · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–1
- P2 11:53CGYJiri HudlerAssists: Deryk Engelland · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–1
- P3 9:55NSHSeth JonesAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–2
- P3 19:30CGYLance BoumaENAssists: Jiri Hudler, Deryk Engelland · Wrist, 0.56 xG5–2
Penalties (2)
- P2 13:52NSHCalle Jarnkrok: Cross checking2 min
- P2 18:00CGYDennis Wideman: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gaustad won the faceoff against Monahan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestJones – Backlund – Bouma12:10
xG 0.76–0.25 (75%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Hudler – Gaudreau – Monahan12:36
xG 0.48–0.25 (65%)attempts 13–9goals 1–1
- Stajan – Shore – Ferland8:47
xG 0.39–0.16 (70%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Raymond – Colborne – Jooris11:13
xG 0.46–0.35 (57%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWideman – Russell20:20
xG 1.19–0.34 (78%)attempts 25–18goals 2–1
- Schlemko – Diaz10:35
xG 0.68–0.11 (86%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- Engelland – Brodie18:27
xG 0.50–0.75 (40%)attempts 9–24goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestSantorelli – Stalberg – Jarnkrok3:46
xG 0.19–0.09 (69%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
- Fisher – Wilson – Arvidsson3:14
xG 0.11–0.03 (78%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Fisher – Stalberg – Wilson7:31
xG 0.05–0.17 (21%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Santorelli – Jarnkrok – Arvidsson4:16
xG 0.08–0.23 (25%)attempts 3–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Franson – Ekholm12:49
xG 0.48–0.50 (49%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
- Josi – Jones18:12
xG 0.43–0.83 (34%)attempts 18–19goals 1–1
- Volchenkov – Ellis13:43
xG 0.31–1.11 (22%)attempts 13–20goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).