Sun, Mar 29, 2015·MTS Centre, Winnipeg
Chicago Blackhawks 4, Winnipeg Jets 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 17 | 18 | 29 | 424 |
| WPG | 06 | 315 | 013 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:30CHIAndrew ShawPPAssists: Brandon Saad, Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–0
- P2 4:34WPGDustin ByfuglienPPUnassisted · Deflected, 0.17 xG1–1
- P2 7:40WPGBlake WheelerSHAssists: Tyler Myers, Andrew Ladd · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 16:19CHIBrad RichardsAssists: Johnny Oduya, Antoine Vermette · Deflected, 0.07 xG2–2
- P2 19:34WPGDustin ByfuglienPPAssists: Andrew Ladd, Drew Stafford · Slap, 0.06 xG2–3
- P3 6:27CHIPatrick SharpUnassisted · Snap, 0.20 xG3–3
- P3 19:29CHIJonathan ToewsGWGAssists: Niklas Hjalmarsson, Marian Hossa · Deflected, 0.07 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 17:41WPGDustin Byfuglien: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P2 1:06WPGMark Stuart: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P2 3:29CHINiklas Hjalmarsson: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P2 6:10WPGToby Enstrom: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:40CHIMarian Hossa: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 4:03CHIBrad Richards: Hooking2 min
- P3 16:15CHIMichal Rozsival: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestRichards – Vermette – Sharp10:29
xG 0.54–0.22 (71%)attempts 10–7goals 2–0
- Bickell – Shaw – Saad9:21
xG 0.45–0.20 (69%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Desjardins – Kruger – Teravainen8:18
xG 0.05–0.25 (16%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Hossa – Versteeg – Toews11:20
xG 0.19–0.69 (22%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestOduya – Seabrook5:07
xG 0.47–0.12 (79%)attempts 7–4goals 2–0
- Oduya – Hjalmarsson12:54
xG 0.35–0.40 (47%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Timonen – Seabrook7:55
xG 0.11–0.21 (34%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Stafford – Scheifele13:25
xG 0.95–0.27 (78%)attempts 10–16goals 0–1
- Thorburn – Perreault – Halischuk6:42
xG 0.22–0.08 (75%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Slater – Stempniak – Tlusty8:59
xG 0.28–0.32 (46%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
- Ladd – Frolik – Lowry11:22
xG 0.30–0.37 (45%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Myers13:27
xG 0.71–0.11 (87%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Byfuglien – Pardy14:00
xG 0.40–0.38 (51%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Stuart – Trouba12:36
xG 0.41–0.51 (45%)attempts 12–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).