Fri, Apr 3, 2015·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Arizona Coyotes 1, San Jose Sharks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 03 | 17 | 011 | 121 |
| SJS | 216 | 010 | 111 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:58SJSLogan CoutureAssists: Tomas Hertl, Patrick Marleau · Snap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 5:00SJSJoe PavelskiGWGAssists: Patrick Marleau, Logan Couture · Slap, 0.09 xG0–2
- P2 2:34ARIMark ArcobelloUnassisted · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–2
- P3 14:10SJSMatt NietoAssists: Chris Tierney, Matt Irwin · Backhand, 0.20 xG1–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:57ARIB.J. Crombeen: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:08SJSMatt Nieto: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:17SJSBarclay Goodrow: Fighting5 min
- P2 15:17ARIJohn Moore: Fighting5 min
- P3 12:37SJSBrenden Dillon: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:37ARITye McGinn: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:31ARIMichael Stone: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Chipchura won the faceoff against Tierney
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- Crombeen – Vitale – Cunningham8:38
xG 0.00–0.22 (0%)attempts 2–7goals 0–1
- Erat – Moss – Gagner10:43
xG 0.28–0.53 (35%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Chipchura – Szwarz – McGinn9:54
xG 0.18–0.48 (27%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
- Doan – Arcobello – Rieder12:49
xG 0.36–0.92 (28%)attempts 12–17goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Ekman-Larsson – Murphy2:12
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Dahlbeck – Murphy14:22
xG 0.38–0.53 (42%)attempts 12–14goals 0–1
- Stone – Ekman-Larsson17:44
xG 0.36–0.94 (28%)attempts 13–22goals 1–1
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestWingels – Nieto – Tierney13:19
xG 0.83–0.20 (81%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0
- Thornton – Pavelski – Karlsson10:25
xG 0.33–0.04 (88%)attempts 13–4goals 0–1
- Brown – Smith – Goodrow6:31
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Marleau – Couture – Hertl11:17
xG 0.52–0.47 (53%)attempts 13–11goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Stollery13:38
xG 1.12–0.27 (81%)attempts 24–9goals 0–1
- Braun – Dillon19:17
xG 0.62–0.23 (73%)attempts 23–11goals 1–0
- Irwin – Fedun15:51
xG 0.66–0.32 (67%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).