Sat, Apr 4, 2015·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Dallas Stars 4, Nashville Predators 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 06 | 16 | 29 | 13 | 424 |
| NSH | 18 | 015 | 211 | 02 | 336 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:59NSHFilip ForsbergAssists: Mattias Ekholm, Seth Jones · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 4:09DALTravis MoenAssists: Colton Sceviour · Wrist, 0.34 xG1–1
- P3 3:23DALTyler SeguinPPAssists: John Klingberg, Patrick Eaves · Slap, 0.04 xG2–1
- P3 7:28DALColton SceviourAssists: Travis Moen, Alex Goligoski · Backhand, 0.12 xG3–1
- P3 10:46NSHRyan EllisAssists: Filip Forsberg, James Neal · Snap, 0.12 xG3–2
- P3 18:05NSHJames NealAssists: Mike Ribeiro, Gabriel Bourque · Slap, 0.03 xG3–3
- OT 4:04DALCody EakinGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.37 xG4–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 17:00DALJordie Benn: Holding2 min
- P2 13:12DALRyan Garbutt: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:24NSHCalle Jarnkrok: Tripping2 min · PPG
- OT 4:04NSHMattias Ekholm: Penalty shot slash on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cullen won the faceoff against Eakin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Hemsky – Nichushkin9:09
xG 0.76–0.35 (69%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Moen – Fiddler – Sceviour11:43
xG 0.61–0.34 (65%)attempts 10–12goals 2–1
- Roussel – Eakin – Garbutt12:55
xG 0.23–0.08 (75%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Spezza – Hemsky – Eaves2:12
xG 0.03–0.04 (44%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Klingberg18:42
xG 0.85–0.42 (67%)attempts 13–19goals 1–0
- Demers – Benn15:52
xG 0.65–0.57 (53%)attempts 14–19goals 1–0
- Daley – Jokipakka14:16
xG 0.11–0.40 (22%)attempts 9–18goals 0–2
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- Cullen – Stalberg – Beck11:15
xG 0.27–0.26 (51%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Fisher – Wilson – Smith13:15
xG 0.74–0.75 (50%)attempts 19–16goals 0–0
- Ribeiro – Neal – Forsberg16:06
xG 0.48–0.54 (47%)attempts 21–7goals 2–2
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Josi16:16
xG 0.67–0.04 (94%)attempts 29–8goals 0–0
- Ekholm – Jones15:49
xG 0.63–0.33 (65%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
- Franson – Ellis9:33
xG 0.08–1.10 (6%)attempts 5–14goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).