Sat, Apr 4, 2015·Gila River Arena, Glendale
San Jose Sharks 3, Arizona Coyotes 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 116 | 114 | 115 | 345 |
| ARI | 214 | 112 | 210 | 536 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:53ARIOliver Ekman-LarssonPPAssists: Mark Arcobello, John Moore · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 16:36SJSTomas HertlPPAssists: Taylor Fedun, Chris Tierney · Backhand, 0.27 xG1–1
- P1 18:57ARIShane DoanPPAssists: Michael Stone, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Wrist, 0.42 xG1–2
- P2 17:46ARIOliver Ekman-LarssonAssists: Sam Gagner, Shane Doan · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–3
- P2 18:05SJSJoe ThorntonAssists: Brent Burns, Melker Karlsson · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–3
- P3 5:30ARIMark ArcobelloGWGAssists: Shane Doan, Tobias Rieder · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–4
- P3 6:48SJSChris TierneyPPAssists: Matt Irwin, Taylor Fedun · Tip-in, 0.16 xG3–4
- P3 19:49ARISam GagnerENAssists: Martin Erat, David Moss · Wrist, 0.56 xG3–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 4:49ARIShane Doan: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:27SJSKarl Stollery: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 15:39ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 17:50SJSBarclay Goodrow: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 3:55ARIShane Doan: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:27ARIDavid Moss: High sticking2 min
- P3 5:46ARIMichael Stone: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 9:53SJSJoe Thornton: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:51SJSTaylor Fedun: High sticking2 min
- P3 17:11ARIDavid Moss: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Chipchura won the faceoff against Pavelski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Pavelski – Karlsson11:03
xG 0.93–0.20 (82%)attempts 18–4goals 1–0
- Marleau – Couture – Hertl11:40
xG 1.00–0.86 (54%)attempts 17–18goals 0–2
- Brown – Smith – Goodrow3:37
xG 0.20–0.07 (74%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Wingels – Nieto – Tierney9:58
xG 0.35–0.27 (56%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBraun – Dillon15:23
xG 1.02–0.33 (75%)attempts 20–10goals 0–0
- Burns – Stollery13:14
xG 0.92–0.44 (68%)attempts 19–15goals 1–1
- Irwin – Fedun10:13
xG 0.38–0.78 (33%)attempts 10–16goals 0–1
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestErat – Moss – Gagner8:04
xG 0.46–0.29 (61%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Erat – Crombeen – Gagner2:14
xG 0.17–0.01 (93%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Crombeen – Vitale – McGinn3:53
xG 0.07–0.23 (23%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Doan – Arcobello – Rieder11:32
xG 0.21–0.38 (35%)attempts 12–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestStone – Ekman-Larsson16:58
xG 0.98–0.82 (54%)attempts 21–21goals 1–1
- Moore – Murphy10:40
xG 0.33–0.53 (38%)attempts 11–16goals 0–0
- Campbell – Dahlbeck13:25
xG 0.13–1.31 (9%)attempts 9–20goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).