Sun, Apr 5, 2015·United Center, Chicago
St. Louis Blues 2, Chicago Blackhawks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 016 | 212 | 05 | 233 |
| CHI | 112 | 015 | 012 | 139 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:12CHIKris VersteegAssists: Marian Hossa · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P2 6:07STLDavid BackesPPAssists: Jaden Schwartz, Kevin Shattenkirk · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–1
- P2 15:12STLOlli JokinenGWGAssists: Ty Rattie, Alex Pietrangelo · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 10:00CHICorey Crawford: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 1:14STLAlex Pietrangelo: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:16CHIAndrew Shaw: Charging2 min
- P2 5:35CHIMichal Rozsival: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 17:21STLJay Bouwmeester: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Berglund won the faceoff against Richards
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestOtt – Goc – Reaves9:10
xG 0.25–0.13 (65%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Lehtera – Rattie6:35
xG 0.34–0.27 (55%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
- Backes – Berglund – Jaskin10:47
xG 0.07–0.42 (15%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Stastny – Oshie – Schwartz11:09
xG 0.47–1.00 (32%)attempts 9–18goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestJackman – Michalek4:22
xG 0.17–0.03 (83%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Jackman – Bortuzzo2:26
xG 0.19–0.17 (53%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
- Shattenkirk – Pietrangelo11:28
xG 0.78–0.76 (50%)attempts 11–15goals 1–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestHossa – Versteeg – Toews12:25
xG 0.90–0.08 (92%)attempts 21–5goals 1–0
- Desjardins – Kruger – Teravainen8:40
xG 0.39–0.07 (84%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Vermette – Bickell – Shaw3:20
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Richards – Sharp – Saad4:16
xG 0.19–0.15 (56%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRozsival – Keith8:26
xG 0.57–0.23 (72%)attempts 13–6goals 0–1
- Keith – Seabrook9:00
xG 0.27–0.07 (80%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Rozsival – Hjalmarsson5:53
xG 0.06–0.03 (70%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).