Mon, Apr 6, 2015·First Niagara Center, Buffalo
Carolina Hurricanes 3, Buffalo Sabres 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 023 | 113 | 216 | 352 |
| BUF | 212 | 27 | 06 | 425 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:41BUFMikhail GrigorenkoAssists: Brian Gionta, Zach Bogosian · Snap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 15:03BUFBrian GiontaUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–2
- P2 1:18BUFJohan LarssonAssists: Tyler Ennis, Zach Bogosian · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–3
- P2 16:48BUFTyler EnnisGWGAssists: Johan Larsson, Matt Moulson · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–4
- P2 18:06CARPatrick DwyerAssists: Jay McClement, John-Michael Liles · Backhand, 0.03 xG1–4
- P3 2:31CARAlexander SeminAssists: Eric Staal, John-Michael Liles · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–4
- P3 14:38CAREric StaalUnassisted · Snap, 0.01 xG3–4
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Grigorenko won the faceoff against Rask
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestSemin – Nestrasil – Skinner10:10
xG 0.55–0.16 (77%)attempts 14–5goals 0–1
- Gerbe – Terry – Rask13:09
xG 0.55–0.19 (74%)attempts 24–6goals 0–0
- Semin – Staal – Staal4:05
xG 0.14–0.02 (89%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Nestrasil – Skinner – Lindholm2:09
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Faulk17:14
xG 0.84–0.49 (63%)attempts 29–12goals 0–2
- Liles – Bellemore19:13
xG 0.69–0.33 (67%)attempts 22–8goals 2–1
- Jordan – Biega10:34
xG 0.49–0.23 (68%)attempts 19–6goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestMoulson – Ennis – Larsson15:53
xG 0.59–0.42 (58%)attempts 14–16goals 2–0
- Hodgson – Dalpe – Varone10:23
xG 0.10–0.35 (22%)attempts 4–10goals 0–1
- Ellis – Kaleta – Deslauriers6:47
xG 0.00–0.37 (0%)attempts 0–15goals 0–0
- Gionta – Foligno – Grigorenko15:07
xG 0.35–0.83 (30%)attempts 9–24goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- Ristolainen – Zadorov2:18
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–1
- Meszaros – Ristolainen19:49
xG 0.40–0.77 (34%)attempts 9–30goals 1–0
- Benoit – Zadorov8:18
xG 0.10–0.48 (17%)attempts 5–16goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).