Mon, Apr 6, 2015·Madison Square Garden, New York
Columbus Blue Jackets 3, New York Rangers 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 113 | 111 | 16 | 02 | 332 |
| NYR | 110 | 111 | 115 | 16 | 442 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:38NYRMartin St. LouisAssists: Kevin Hayes · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 17:20CBJMatt CalvertAssists: Jeremy Morin · Snap, 0.27 xG1–1
- P2 0:36NYRDan GirardiAssists: Derek Stepan, Chris Kreider · Snap, 0.14 xG1–2
- P2 14:42CBJMarko DanoAssists: Artem Anisimov, Alexander Wennberg · Wrist, 0.24 xG2–2
- P3 8:14CBJBrandon DubinskyAssists: Nick Foligno, Cody Goloubef · Snap, 0.23 xG3–2
- P3 19:32NYRDerek StepanAssists: Chris Kreider, J.T. Miller · Slap, 0.10 xG3–3
- OT 4:10NYRDerek StepanGWGAssists: Keith Yandle · Wrist, 0.26 xG3–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 8:24NYRDan Girardi: High sticking2 min
- P1 11:25NYRMats Zuccarello: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:31CBJCody Goloubef: Cross checking2 min
- P2 11:30CBJMarko Dano: Interference2 min
- P3 5:08CBJDalton Prout: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 8:35NYRMatt Hunwick: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stepan won the faceoff against Dubinsky
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestHartnell – Dano – Wennberg10:23
xG 0.71–0.07 (91%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Foligno – Anisimov10:32
xG 0.83–0.35 (71%)attempts 16–6goals 0–1
- Letestu – Calvert – Morin8:07
xG 0.47–0.35 (57%)attempts 5–7goals 1–1
- Atkinson – Johansen – Jenner10:10
xG 0.13–0.27 (32%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoloubef – Connauton12:35
xG 0.90–0.40 (69%)attempts 14–10goals 1–0
- Falk – Prout13:36
xG 0.35–0.15 (70%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Johnson – Savard16:28
xG 0.49–1.26 (28%)attempts 15–18goals 0–1
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestStepan – Kreider – Miller10:11
xG 0.44–0.20 (69%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Moore – Glass – Fast6:31
xG 0.57–0.35 (62%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- St. Louis – Hagelin – Hayes11:18
xG 0.16–1.05 (13%)attempts 5–16goals 0–1
- Nash – Brassard – Zuccarello11:23
xG 0.19–1.36 (12%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoyle – Yandle4:44
xG 0.24–0.16 (60%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Yandle – Girardi2:06
xG 0.08–0.02 (79%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Girardi – McDonagh10:25
xG 1.01–0.96 (51%)attempts 10–13goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).