Mon, Apr 6, 2015·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Dallas Stars 5, San Jose Sharks 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 210 | 110 | 25 | 525 |
| SJS | 09 | 16 | 09 | 124 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:28DALColton SceviourAssists: Jason Demers, Vernon Fiddler · Wrist, 0.34 xG1–0
- P1 17:32DALPatrick EavesPPGWGAssists: Jamie Benn, Jason Spezza · Deflected, 0.44 xG2–0
- P2 7:53DALJamie BennPPAssists: Tyler Seguin, Jason Spezza · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–0
- P2 13:27SJSJoe ThorntonPPAssists: Chris Tierney · Slap, 0.08 xG3–1
- P3 15:08DALJamie BennAssists: Tyler Seguin · Deflected, 0.17 xG4–1
- P3 18:00DALRyan GarbuttAssists: Trevor Daley · Backhand, 0.14 xG5–1
Penalties (13)
- P1 0:28SJSMike Brown: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:28DALAntoine Roussel: Fighting5 min
- P1 4:03SJSMelker Karlsson: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:51SJSMike Brown: Charging2 min
- P1 14:21DALShawn Horcoff: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 17:10SJSBarclay Goodrow: Elbowing2 min · PPG
- P2 6:12SJSJoe Pavelski: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 7:27SJSBrent Burns: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:29DALShawn Horcoff: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 4:23DALCody Eakin: Holding2 min
- P3 9:15SJSTommy Wingels: Boarding2 min
- P3 15:52DALRyan Garbutt: Elbowing2 min
- P3 19:22DALShawn Horcoff: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tierney won the faceoff against Fiddler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestMoen – Fiddler – Sceviour8:25
xG 0.54–0.06 (90%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Eaves – Benn – Seguin7:02
xG 0.43–0.09 (83%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
- Horcoff – Spezza – Hemsky6:31
xG 0.24–0.10 (72%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Roussel – Eakin – Garbutt7:59
xG 0.05–0.41 (11%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDemers – Benn10:49
xG 0.16–0.07 (70%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Jokipakka2:48
xG 0.07–0.05 (59%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Klingberg11:30
xG 0.32–0.42 (44%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Couture – Hertl7:37
xG 0.38–0.12 (76%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Brown – Smith – Goodrow9:06
xG 0.16–0.01 (96%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Thornton – Pavelski – Karlsson11:38
xG 0.24–0.32 (43%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Wingels – Nieto – Tierney6:35
xG 0.06–0.79 (7%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Irwin – Fedun13:11
xG 0.25–0.30 (46%)attempts 13–14goals 0–1
- Burns – Stollery11:42
xG 0.52–0.65 (45%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
- Braun – Dillon12:51
xG 0.21–0.41 (33%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).